Maravi

(MrK) HIV/AIDS Projections For South Africa - A look back

We all know the dire predictions for Africa, on which the UNAID$ based the justification for it's continued existence. There has been no heterosexual epidemic of HIV/AIDS worldwide - but Africa is different.

However, Africa is not so different after all. Back in 2004, the US Census Bureau made predictions about the impact of HIV/AIDS on the population of South Africa. For this purpose, they developed 2 models - one with HIV/AIDS, one without the impact of HIV/AIDS.

Today, we can compare those predictions with the latest population survey to come out of South Africa, the 2007 Community Survey, and see which of the US Census Bureau's predictions was closest to reality.

With Aids Model (2004)

1985 34.254.092
1986 35.098.897
1987 35.933.379
1988 36.761.065
1989 37.581.427
1990 38.391.094
1991 39.183.648
1992 39.964.159
1993 40.639.384
1994 41.211.897
1995 41.779.149
1996 42.311.979
1997 42.835.005
1998 43.334.603
1999 43.745.636
2000 44.066.197
2001 44.296.012
2002 44.433.622
2003 44.481.901
2004 44.448.470
2005 44.344.136
2006 44.187.637
2007 43.997.828
2008 43.786.115
2009 43.561.848
2010 43.332.530
2011 43.106.074
2012 42.887.003

Without AIDS Model:

1985 34.254.092
1986 35.099.442
1987 35.933.931
1988 36.761.691
1989 37.582.548
1990 38.394.247
1991 39.191.832
1992 39.982.188
1993 40.674.896
1994 41.279.293
1995 41.898.687
1996 42.513.938
1997 43.161.878
1998 43.840.657
1999 44.496.922
2000 45.137.595
2001 45.767.337
2002 46.384.985
2003 46.989.038
2004 47.578.725
2005 48.153.451
2006 48.719.260
2007 49.282.246
2008 49.840.878
2009 50.393.488
2010 50.938.825
2011 51.479.159
2012 52.016.351

From this, we can see that the following population sizes were projected for the year 2007:

2007 43.997.828 (with HIV/AIDS)
2007 49.282.246 (without HIV/AIDS)

2007 48.5 million (Statistics South Africa, 2007 Community Survey.

A clear distinction. With aids, the US Census Bureau projected total population for South Africa of 43.99 million, without AIDS, it would have been 49.28 million - a difference of 5.27 million people - over 10% of the population. This also illustrates, that the US Census Bureau believed that there would be a discernable impact by HIV/AIDS on the population of South Africa. Unlike today, a mere 5 years later, when they try to rationalize the absence of this impact by ironically citing a high birthrate. Clearly, the US Census Bureau, back in 2004, did not believe that South Africans could breed their way out of a deadly epidemic, although the measured birth rate was very well known to them and probably has not changed much for decades.

So what was the real population size of South Africa in 2007. Well for that, we have the community Survey of 2007, courtesy of Statistics South Africa. And the population of South Africa in 2007 was... (drumroll):

2007 48.5 million (Statistics South Africa, 2007 Community Survey.

In other words, this population, which would have stagnated in the presence of a massive HIV/AIDS epidemic, and peaked at about 44 million before declining, is in fact much closer to the without aids model projections.

Now how is this possible? How could the population of a country be much closer to the population predicted without the presence of the 'deadly epidemic' of HIV/AIDS?

Somehow, the slight of hand of AID$ science spun this news (which is what they do - managing the message) into, oh no, we were just kidding, because a high birth rate will take care this deadly epidemic, because it is... slow? But we knew the average time from infection to death back in the 1980s. So how did this fact not make it into a US Census Bureau model in 2004?

The same way, unlike HIV prevalence, the average number of births per woman is easily verifyable and well known, especially in South Africa. So again, how could this not have made it into a US Census Bureau model in 2004?

I think reality is awe inspiring, but very simple. In order to get funding going, and divert healthcare budgets from other less lucrative diseases, UNAIDS was created to promote and market HIV/AIDS. Ever since it's creation, they have been promoting the idea that there is a massive, heterosexually transmitted HIV epidemic out there, that is going to kill everyone in sight, unless it was stopped.

The epidemic in Africa was hyped to the max. That is what happened. There is no massive HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa. The data is in, and UNAIDS, dr. James Chin and the rest are just left trying to pretend nothing has changed, in order to cover their behinds.

It was all about money, and exploiting Africa for their own financial gain and professional reputations.

Already, there is widespread agreement that there has never been a widespread heterosexual epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the West, and now everyone agrees there is none in Asia and South America.

It is only in Africa, where they can keep their racket going.


Sources:

SOUTH AFRICA - TOTAL COUNTRY E&P04 (8/28/04) W/O AIDS (SF04N2.AGG)
09/28/2004 13:30 M:\Shared\DES\E&P\SAFRICA\Jan04\FINAL\SF04A2.agg
Personal communication with dr. Timothy B. Fowler, of the US Census Bureau (e-mail available)

Statistics South Africa, Community Survey of 2007

The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS (US Census Bureau)
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/slideshows/hiv-aids/HIV-AIDS-Presentation.ppt

Labels: HIV/AIDS

posted by MrK @ 9:48 PM