Maravi

(TALKZIMBABWE) Engaging the inclusive Government

Engaging the inclusive Government
International Crisis Group report on Zimbabwe
Tue, 21 Apr 2009 22:37:00 +0000

AFTER nearly a year of seemingly endless talks brokered by the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), Zimbabwe’s long-ruling Zanu PF party and the two factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) formed a coalition government in February.

The long talks over implementation of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) signed by Zanu PF and the MDC on 15 September 2008 gave few signs that President Robert Mugabe genuinely accepts the need for political and economic reforms and national reconciliation. He has described the new inclusive government as a temporary one in which Zanu PF remains in the driver’s seat.

By contrast, Tsvangirai sees it as a transitional process that can stabilise the country, leading to elections under a new constitution in two years. In effect, the deal has established two power centres and left the Zanu PF establishment ample opportunities to block or undermine reforms.

Some old regime elements seek to cause the new government to fail, out of fear of prosecution, loss of power and its financial sinecures, hatred for Tsvangirai or the MDC or a genuine belief that they are the guardians of the country’s liberation. They are thus continuing to provoke and frustrate the MDC, as shown by such actions as continuing arrests and detention of MDC activists, refusal of police to carry out some government orders, efforts to drive out the last few hundred white farmers by continued farm invasions and stalling on the appointment of provincial governors as well as reconfiguration of ministerial powers.

Nevertheless, there are at the same time signs that a more constructive political dynamic is developing, including within the parliament, the one institution with some democratic (if imperfect) legitimacy and where cross-party collaboration will be needed to pass major reform legislation. Also, while the humanitarian and economic situations remain dire, there have been some signs of improvement: many schools have re-opened, prices have stabilised, basic stocks are returning to shops and civil servants are being paid at least a modest stipend. As a result, Tsvangirai’s political credibility is rising.

The intense internal struggle to control Zanu PF after Mugabe goes has led one faction (that of the husband-wife power team of Vice President Joice and ex-general, now businessman, Solomon “Rex” Mujuru) to explore cooperation with the Tsvangirai faction of the MDC (MDC-T). The smaller MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara (MDC-M) was used by Zanu PF in its attempt to manipulate the Sadc negotiations but now increasingly sees its political survival, beyond the term of the inclusive government, as dependent on brokering parliamentary compromises and moving closer to the Tsvangirai wing.

It would be premature for the U.S., the European Union (EU) and others to remove the targeted sanctions (travel bans, asset freezes) against key members of the Mugabe regime or to fully embrace the inclusive government. But they as well as Sadc members should work in a concerted fashion among themselves and with both formations of the MDC as well as progressive Zanu PF elements to help make the reform process irreversible.

Read the full report here

Labels: INTERNATIONAL CRISIS REPORT GROUP, NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT

posted by MrK @ 10:57 PM