(NEWZIMBABWE) Momentum now with Mugabe and Zanu PF

COMMENT - :) We'll see who will or will not stand a chance in free and fair elections.

Momentum now with Mugabe and Zanu PF
by Gilbert Bere
23/01/2010 00:00:00

NEWS broken last December that the head of the European Union delegation to Zimbabwe, Xavier Marchal, had said the bloc is prepared to work with the inclusive government, with Mugabe as its President and corroborated by the United Kingdom through David Miliband on Tuesday has the potential of either energizing or de-railing the political processes in Zimbabwe.

This is particularly so if one considers that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai is under immense pressure from the regional SADC grouping which wants him to drop some his key demands for progress’ sake as pointed by President Jacob Zuma of South Africa.

Then there was Milband’s unhelpful admission in parliament on Tuesday that targeted sanctions on Mugabe and his cohorts could only be lifted on the advice of MDC which apparently supports ZANU PF claims that Tsvangirai’s party canvassed for sanctions in the first place.

The British Foreign Secretary said: “In respect of sanctions, we have made it clear that they can be lifted only in a calibrated way, as progress is made. I do not think that it is right to say that the choice is between lifting all sanctions and lifting none at all.”

Milband continued: “We have to calibrate our response to the progress on the ground, and, above all, to be guided by what the MDC says to us about the conditions under which it is working and leading the country.”

But contrary to what many are suggesting, Miliband’s statements have the potential of strengthening MDC’s negotiating power with its political rival, ZANU PF.

What Mugabe and ZANU PF need to do is to implement fully the outstanding issues as per the Global Political Agreement (GPA) knowing very well that sanctions will be a thing of the past.

But the philosophy of using both a stick and a carrot does not often work in complicated political situations like Zimbabwe and, soon, Miliband could regret his public statements.

ZANU PF and Robert Mugabe are renowned for being seasoned political tacticians, and would not readily take the bait which is certain to consign them to political oblivion in the forthcoming general elections.

It is no secret that in a free and fair election, Mugabe and ZANU PF will not stand a chance against Tsvangirai and the MDC; hence Tomana, Gono and Jonatham Moyo are crucial to ZANU PF’s political calculations.

If David Milband presented a case for Tsvangirai, then President Jacob Zuma did Mugabe a world of good by admonishing the MDC leader in public when he said:“are these issues (Gono and Tomana) so fundamental that we cannot move without resolving them? Can we park them and proceed?”

Zuma went on to say: “I’m sure the Zimbabweans have to open up and look at the issues from all angles.”

Such words, coming from the South African President, will surely be well received by President Mugabe as “wise and constructive” counsel from a concerned African brother and as long as SADC is behind Mugabe, Tsvangirai will be chasing shadows.

Mugabe can use his usual jibe, labelling the MDC leader a creation of the west, Britain, in particular.

Again, the fact that Mugabe secured another 5-year term at the helm of ZANU PF last December has been rewarded by the EU’s recognition of him as President of Zimbabwe and indications that the UK is prepared to respond positively to advice from MDC means that sooner or later targeted sanctions will be lifted.

Mugabe, with the support of SADC and the AU now has the means and capacity to out manoeuvre Tsvangirai in the forthcoming elections set for sometime next year, hopefully.

However, I have strong reservations on the matter of the arms embargo on Zimbabwe and the ill-gotten assets of Zanu PF leaders which have been frozen in Europe.

To begin with the arms embargo; Southern Africa is a peaceful region without any prospects of conflicts apart from the incidental political turmoil in Zimbabwe, which normally erupts towards and during elections.

With elections looming next year, a repeat of last year’s violence should not be ruled out. This means that there is no compelling need, at the moment, for the arms embargo to be lifted.

The arms embargo should be kept in force to give democracy a chance to take root and allow a new crop of professional service men and women with a national orientation to assume higher office as opposed to the current situation where the top brass in security services is openly support one political party.

Again, the issue of frozen assets is even more thorny and controversial than the arms embargo because it touches on issues of good governance and the emergence of a free, democratic and functional state.

The issue here is the manner in which these assets were accrued and whether we should reward corrupt regimes which loot national resources and stash them away in Western countries.

The figures which we are talking about should be running into several millions if not billions of hard currency. Just imagine that Ignatius Chombo, if affidavits filed by his former wife are anything to go by, owns 11 farms and more than 100 residential stands with the majority of these being in the posh northern suburbs of Harare, not to mention various other assets.

The Mugabe family has also helped themselves with 50 000 acres of prime farming land in Zimbabwe under the government’s infamous land reform programme. This shows that we are dealing with very hungry big fish whose appetite for wealth cannot be easily satisfied.

Instead of releasing them to their supposed owners, these ill-gotten, and now, frozen assets should be given to the new government which emerges after this inclusive administration.

The new government should be a product of free elections held under the auspices of SADC, AU and UN, not the farcical of elections we have had in the past under Mugabe’s ZANU PF.

While we must credit ZANU and ZAPU for liberating Zimbabwe from colonial rule, the regime which they established headed by the veteran President Mugabe is shockingly corrupt, self-serving and has no respect for the rule of law; meaning they have abandoned all the principles of the revolution and betrayed those gallant sons and daughters who made the ultimate sacrifice for better tomorrow for all of us.

What is clear is where two bulls fight, the grass suffers the most; people of Zimbabwe be warned- fore-warned is fore-armed.

The first warning shots marking the beginning of a long arduous struggle for a new Zimbabwe have been fired and the momentum is with Robert Mugabe because the region is behind him.

How Tsvangirai and the MDC respond, only time will tell.
A word of caution from Holy Book for guidance: Luke 21:21 and 23- ?Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those in the country not enter the city. How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers! There will be great distress in the land and wrath against this people.”