Maravi

(TALKZIMBABWE) Politicians master the art of lying with statistics

Politicians master the art of lying with statistics
Comment
Mon, 01 Jun 2009 10:31:00 +0000

DARRELL HUFF in 1954 wrote a brief, breezy, book outlining common errors, both intentional and unintentional, associated with the interpretation of statistics, and how these errors can lead to inaccurate conclusions. It has become one of the most widely read statistics books in history (even though Huff was not a statistician himself). Politicians all over the world now use the same principle to distort reality.

Has anyone noticed how Zimbabweans have been inundated with statistics that are not backed by real policy? Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai said on Friday Zimbabwe will attract up to $16 billion in exploration and mining investment if it corrects policies that have scared away foreign investors.

"Government has a window of opportunity to prepare a conducive policy environment by mid 2010, that could see Zimbabwe's minerals sector attracting between $6 billion and $16 billion in exploration and mine development during the 2011-2018 period," Tsvangirai said.

These are huge amounts, by any measure, but we are not told how much will be retained in the country and anything about the ownership of those mines or the effects of such investment on the local economy..

Foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean grew by 44 percent in 2004, following four consecutive years of decline. But many observers say this growth merely served to boost the profits earned by transnational corporations in a region still mired in poverty and inequity.

The Prime Minister does not shed light on what payment foreigners will exact for our use of their capital? Will sustained inflows of foreign capital give foreigners control of the Zimbabwean capital stock, increase job quality, or improve (or thwart) local production?

In effect, what PM Tsvangirai is saying is that he wants our children to work for foreign owners. That's not the kind of a future our departed heroes wanted for Zimbabwe.

No one could argue against the short-term benefits of foreign investment: rise in productivity and jobs. But no one warns of desperate long-run consequences from foreign capital.

The trends we have seen in Africa is that foreigners obtain control of the host economies and use this control to systematically reduce the efficiency of the host economy, effectively killing local entrepreneurship.

Where multinationals have encountered local populations, for example in South Africa, local groups bear the burden of an inherently uneven relationship. Forced to the bottom rungs of a global division of capital and labor, the masses of Soweto and some other places in that country have become the low-cost labor pool for multinational firms.

Countries like Kenya and Zambia, among many other developing countries that have opened up their economies to the big corporations, have become the dumping ground for older-generation technologies.

In many instances, foreign investment has failed to improve the plight of recipient states, and merely exploited them.

Interestingly, PM Tsvangirai listed a raft of policies which he said the inclusive Government had failed to address in three months: "restoration of law and order, the rule of law, property rights, etc". These are inherently complex issues which cannot be discussed at a single party rally. These issues defy easy categorization and vary dramatically over time.

For example how do you explain the forced removal of indigenous peoples from their lands in Botswana to open up land for diamond exploration? Isn't there a human rights and moral issue there?

Are sanctions imposed on the people of Zimbabwe not denial of human rights (of Zimbabweans)?

It is important that as politicians throw figures around, they should also be responsible enough not to simplify complicated issues to try and score cheap political points.

When the Tangwena people were moved from their lands as late as the 1970s, whose property rights were (dis)respected? Isn't that a human rights issue?

Interesting that some of our politicians are looking to individuals who have caused the current global economic instability to stabilise our economy.

Rather than playing around with figures, our politicians should explore realistic ways to get us out of our current problems without throwing meaningless figures around that only serve individual political interests.

________________________
Philip Murombedzi
Editor: The Zimbabwe Guardian
philipmurombedzi *** yahoo.com

Labels: MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, NEOLIBERALISM

posted by MrK @ 4:45 AM