Maravi

Will Mugabe go down with ZANU-PF?

Will Mugabe go down with ZANU-PF?
By The Post
Tue 09 Mar. 2010, 03:40 CAT

As Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe goes in the twilight of his half century-long political career and a third of a century ruling Zimbabwe, no other topic has become more interesting than that of having his party ZANU-PF choose his successor.

This is a bona fide issue for the party and the country. It is validated by the fact that the President is ageing, and since no man has ever defied nature, ZANU-PF cannot not run away from this.

However, President Mugabe, who turned 86 on February 21, has vowed that it is not yet time for him to quit. At the expiration of the life of the unity government next year, Zimbabwe is scheduled to hold fresh elections. Last Thursday, President Mugabe declared that he would stand as president if his party chooses that he does so.

By the time the next elections are held next year, he will be 87 years old. If he wins the election, it means that by the end of his five-year term, he will be 92 years old. Of course President Mugabe will not have beaten the record of the late Samoan head of state Malietoa Tanumafili II, who died in office at the age of 94 in May 2007. However, Mugabe is the oldest leader in the world at present.

The issue of succession within ZANU-PF has brought out two major questions that ZANU-PF must answer.

First, does ZANU-PF have a clear succession plan?

And second, how is ZANU-PF dealing with the divisions in the party that are brewing underground because of succession issues?

We all know how much of a taboo it has been for anyone in ZANU-PF to discuss President Mugabe’s succession. In fact, many within the party now have a feeling that the President won’t quit; that he will either die in office or go down with ZANU-PF.

These issues are serious and must not be ignored by ZANU-PF. Critics believe that ZANU-PF now lacks the dynamism of modern politics by maintaining in critical positions the political old guard who only have the lethargy of embracing modern politics and are stuck to the old way of liberation struggle politics.

They believe that instead of taking the chance to inject new blood into the party, ZANU-PF has become comfortable in retaining the old guard, denying the party chance to embrace modern political ideas, thereby making ZANU-PF a political museum frozen in times gone by.

The arguments of critics, for example are that when African liberation movements took power, their governments were often driven by militaristic mindsets, operating along the lines of command and obedience, which trends are still evident in ZANU-PF. They believe that democratic discourse within the party in search of the common good is arguably frowned upon and detested.

But look at how youths in other revolutionary parties like South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), as controversial as they are, have a bigger say in running the affairs of the party.

For ZANU-PF, the importance of succession has never been more crucial than it is now. Yet this is the most feared topic that one can dare bring up in public. The only discussions about President Mugabe’s succession have been very silent and in the background. Those who have dared to speak about it have ended up regretting, as did former finance minister Simba Makoni, former home affairs minister Dumiso Dabengwa and former information minister Prof Jonathan Moyo.

But succession is a very critical issue. If handled properly it allows for smooth transition but if not, it results in infighting, factionalism and manipulation of the majority by power-hungry political vultures. A classic example of smooth succession is how Nelson Mandela handed over power to Thabo Mbeki in 1999. The symbolic importance of this is that the founding father of the new South Africa handed power to his successor. Smooth succession is now embedded within the ANC and at every point, the next leader of South Africa is predictable.

Even the Bible teaches us about succession. One of the good examples of succession issues in the Bible is the story of Samuel.

1 Samuel 8:4-5 says: “So all the elders of Israel gathered together and came to Samuel at Ramah. They said to him, ‘You are old, and your sons do not walk in your ways; now appoint a king to lead us, such as all the other nations have’.”

Samuel was the last of the judges who ruled Israel. He was an upright and just man who always trusted in God. However, as he grew older, the Israelite elders were worried about the continuity of Israel as a nation. Reading this biblical chapter, it is clear that all the twelve tribes of Israel were in unison on the succession issue, and there were no factions or jostling for positions. It was not that Samuel no longer had qualities. The truth was that Samuel, as old as he was, had a string of outstanding contributions to Israel that could not be rivaled. Samuel, even at old age, was still respected by the Israelites and he was the only person honoured to appoint his successor.

The sons whom he had appointed to take over from him were very incompetent and the elders wanted Samuel to appoint them a successor bringing Israel in line with its neighbours.

We are not saying ZANU-PF doesn’t have a succession plan. They probably have but it is not yet public. If it is there, then they have been keeping it as a closely guarded secret.

The problem is that we are beginning to see simmering tensions with the party, as some of President Mugabe’s lieutenants have stepped up an internal fight for prime positions to take over the party when Mugabe retires. Behind the scenes, rival factions have been involved in shadow-boxing.

There are strong undercurrents of divisions and factionalism in the party. There are so many people who are said to be secretly jostling for the post should the President go. As long as there is no clear route for the party to take, disintegration begins to set in, or it becomes a fate that looks increasingly inevitable.

If the party has no succession plan, it is a potentially dangerous situation that may cause serious chaos in the country. Imagine that there is no succession plan and President Mugabe happens to drop dead before anointing a successor.

All those sparring in shadow-boxing for the position behind the scenes would seek to come out along with their followers and sympathisers, and such divisions would mean the end of the party.

Liberation parties have been known not to recover once they go down. It would then be difficult to see how eventually ZANU-PF would avoid the fate of UNIP, MCP in Malawi and KANU in Kenya.

But there can be no denying that President Mugabe is an outstanding leader, revered and respected by not only his subjects but also by his colleagues in Africa and beyond. He is even respected by his enemies. There can be no denying that Zimbabwe still needs his position in the driving seat in order to attain the vision that the country aspires for.

This vehement leader has successfully steered the party through turbulent times, especially through the crisis of the last decade, in these times when most liberation parties are either struggling to survive or have gone down. He literally had no opposition in the first 20 years of his reign, until he embarked on land reforms that threw the country into chaos.

During his first 20 years in power, he won several accolades for his outstanding leadership, including being awarded several honorary degrees, some of which have been stripped from him since he fell out with the West.

His reason for staying on is that his vision of an economically independent Zimbabwe has not yet been achieved. To him, political independence of a country is just half the phase of total independence. Having led the country to political independence almost 30 years ago, the Zimbabwean leader has now vowed to lead the country once again to economic independence, where the country’s economy that was in the hands of the white minority – who made up only 15 - 20 per cent of the population – has to be shared with the 80 per cent natives, who have always been loitering on the fringes.

To President Mugabe, the economy is not yet securely in the hands of the blacks as his vision dictates. The first phase (of land reforms) is complete and the second phase (of having natives control all major foreign-owned companies) has just been embarked on.

This programme is scheduled to be completed in the next five years. When that happens, that’s probably when we will hear of him thinking of stepping down.

Whoever eventually wins the battle to succeed President Mugabe - whenever his position becomes vacant - will have a huge task to reorganise a party which many critics say just managed to hang onto power last year through violence against any kind of opposition.

posted by MrK @ 5:48 PM