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Economist Intelligence Unit predicts change of govt

Economist Intelligence Unit predicts change of govt
By George Chellah
Tue 31 May 2011, 04:10 CAT

THE Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has revealed that the forthcoming general elections could result in a transfer of power from President Rupiah Banda to PF leader Michael Sata. And the EIU states that Sata’s popularity has grown as public discontent with the government has increased.

This is contained in the latest EIU country report on Zambia for May 2011.
On political outlook for 2011-2012, the EIU report has stated that the first half of the forecast period would be dominated by the elections, which are likely to take place in mid- 2011.

“Political squabbling will intensify but stability will remain intact. Following months of discord, the alliance between the two largest opposition parties – the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND) – has ended,” the EIU stated.

“Despite this, the elections are likely to be closely contested and could result in a transfer of power from the President, Rupiah Banda, and the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) to the PF and its leader, Michael Sata.”

The EIU stated that Sata’s nationalistic rhetoric has raised some concern in the past but he is highly unlikely to depart radically from the MMD’s fairly pragmatic policy agenda.

“Following the elections the government’s focus is likely to revert to policy. A referendum is expected in 2012 on changing presidential elections from the first-past-the-post system to one in which the winning candidate would require more than 50 per cent of the vote,” reads the report in part.

“A fragmented opposition would then no longer guarantee victory for the ruling party. The population is widely expected to approve the change. Labour unrest and demands for higher wages could increase in the run-up to the elections.

Stability is likely to be maintained as the government intervenes to quell any unrest, although underlying discontent will persist.”

On election watch, the EIU maintained that the presidential and parliamentary elections were likely to be closely contested.

“The MMD will benefit from the advantages of incumbency and its formidable electoral machinery. However, the PF and Mr Sata should put up a strong challenge to the MMD,” the report stated. “Mr Sata narrowly lost the 2008 election and his popularity has grown as public discontent with the government has increased.

“A controversial reversal of his position on mining taxes – Mr Sata previously advocated higher mining taxes, but now supports a stable tax regime – has not dented his popularity.”

The report stated that the electorate is disillusioned with the MMD but is also disenchanted with the opposition’s enduring failure to offer a united front against it.

The EUI stated that the run-up to voting would be marred by bias in the state-owned media and the incumbent’s use of public resources to fund their campaigns.

“Some election-related violence could occur, especially if the government sticks by its decision to ban parallel vote tabulation whereby polling booths are monitored to ensure that the results announced at individual polling stations are consistent with the nationwide result, which would entrench the opposition’s suspicions of electoral fraud,” stated the latest EIU report in part.

Labels: 2011 ELECTIONS, ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

posted by MrK @ 6:27 PM