Maravi

Attacks on Catholics could cost MMD - EIU

Attacks on Catholics could cost MMD - EIU
By George Chellah
Mon 04 July 2011, 03:59 CAT

THE Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has revealed that state-owned media's campaign against the Catholic Church could dent support for the MMD among Zambia's three million Catholics. And the EIU has maintained that the forthcoming elections could lead to a transfer of power from President Rupiah Banda to Michael Sata.

This is contained in the latest EIU country report on Zambia for June 2011.
“The Catholic Church in Zambia has condemned the state-owned media's campaign against it.

This could dent support for the MMD among Zambia's three million Catholics,” the EIU stated. “This is likely to be at least partly offset by the unprecedented support that the MMD has reportedly received from traditional leaders in Southern Province”.

The EIU stated that President Banda and the MMD would remain in power until the presidential and parliamentary elections due this year.

“The MMD will benefit from the advantages of incumbency and remains likely to win, but the elections will be closely contested and could lead to a transfer of power to the Patriotic Front and its leader Michael Sata,” the report stated.

The report further stated that whichever party wins, the government is likely to stick to a pro-market agenda and promote macroeconomic stability, as strong public pressure to promote job creation ensures a high degree of economic pragmatism.

“Real GDP growth is forecast at 7 per cent in 2011 and 7.2 per cent in 2012, underpinned by subsidies for producers of maize, investments in mining, fiscal incentives for investors in the 'priority sectors' and a sharp rise in public investment,” it stated.

“The kwacha will be supported by large FDI inflows and strong copper output, but is nevertheless forecast to weaken marginally to ZK 4,869:US$1 in 2011 and to ZK5,111: US$1 in 2012 as the surge in copper prices peters out.

“The current account is forecast at a surplus of 2 per cent of GDP in 2011 and a deficit of 3.7 per cent of GDP in 2012 as export growth slows in line with copper prices and strong foreign and public investment boost imports of capital goods.”

The EIU stated that the next five months would be dominated by the elections that are scheduled for October 2011.

“Political squabbling will intensify but stability will remain intact. Following months of discord, the alliance between the two largest opposition parties the PF and the UPND has ended.

Despite this, the elections are likely to be closely contested and could result in a transfer of power from the president, Rupiah Banda, and the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) to the PF and its leader, Michael Sata,” the report stated.

“Mr Sata's nationalist rhetoric has raised some concern in the past, but he would be highly unlikely to depart radically from the MMD's fairly pragmatic policy agenda. Following the elections the government's focus is likely to revert to policy.

A referendum is expected in 2012 on changing presidential elections from the first-past-the-post system to one in which the winning candidate would require more than 50 per cent of the vote.”

The EIU stated that the population is widely expected to approve the change.
“Labour unrest and demands for higher wages have increased in the run-up to the elections. Stability is likely to be maintained as the government intervenes to quell any unrest, although underlying discontent will persist,” stated the report.

It stated that the presidential and parliamentary elections are likely to be closely contested.

Labels: CATHOLIC CHURCH, ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

posted by MrK @ 3:26 PM