(WIKILEAKS CABLES) XXXXXXXXXXXX’s observations on the political landscape and U.S.-Zimbabwe relations

Monday, September 05, 2011

(WIKILEAKS CABLES) XXXXXXXXXXXX’s observations on the political landscape and U.S.-Zimbabwe relations

COMMENT - What a strange 'dictatorship' and 'tyranny', where the MDC: " the national party was not enabling parliamentarians to demonstrate, e.g. by bringing home pork, that they were working for their constituents. " Constituents? In a dictatorship? Now you know why the MDC denied the existence of economic sanctions against Zimbabwe (ZDERA) high and low, while trying to blame the effects of ZDERA (hyperinflation) on 'mismanagement by Mugabe'. They lied, because they know how unpopular this strategy of getting into power by shock treatment, is with the constituents they have to face at every elections. They are lying to the voters about the cause of their misery. And that is something the ANC never would have done.

SUBJECT: XXXXXXXXXXXX’s observations on the political landscape and
U.S.-Zimbabwe relations
REF: HARARE 87; HARARE 36

CLASSIFIED BY: Charles A. Ray, Ambassador, STATE, EXEC; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

¶1. (SBU) Pol/econ chief met February 9 with XXXXXXXXXXXX offered his observations on various topics including the state of ZANU-PF, indigenization, and elections.

¶2. (C) ZANU-PF. XXXXXXXXXXXX described the party as badly fractured. It was like a stick of TNT, susceptible to ignition and disintegration. ZANU-PF was holding together because of the threat of MDC-T and foreign pressure. He likened ZANU-PF to a troop of baboons incessantly fighting among themselves, but coming together to face an external threat. New leadership was essential and would emerge as some of the old timers, including Robert Mugabe, left the scene. XXXXXXXXXXXX opined that Vice President Joice Mujuru or S.K. Moyo (former ambassador to South African and now party chair) were possibilities, although Mujuru’s fear of Mugabe was affecting her ability to lead.

¶3. (C) MDC-T. According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, MDC-T is alienating supporters because of corruption. He pointed to the Harare suburb of Chitungwiza where MDC-T is investigating its councilors for being on the take. Residents of Chitungwiza blame the party. XXXXXXXXXXXX commented that part of the problem was that many MDC-T local councilors and parliamentarians elected in 2008 had no independent income. Unable to survive on their US$200/month salaries, they were now turning to graft. He also noted that the national party was not enabling parliamentarians to demonstrate, e.g. by bringing home pork, that they were working for their constituents.

¶4. (C) Elections. XXXXXXXXXXXX believed elections would take place in 2012 or 2013. Parliamentarians from all parties, particularly those who had no income before coming into office, had no interest in running again before necessary. They would try to stall the constitutional process.

¶5. (C) Global Political Agreement (GPA). XXXXXXXXXXXX thought there would be slow progress. In his opinion, the most important achievement of the GPA was the sidelining of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Gideon Gono.

¶6. (C) Indigenization. Taking an opposite view to Minister of Youth and Indigenization Saviour Kasukuwere (Ref A), XXXXXXXXXXXX said the government’s indigenization program benefitted nobody accept those who were already wealthy. It did nothing for his constituents, who couldn’t afford to buy into companies and were living hand-to-mouth.

¶7. (C) Economic Recovery. XXXXXXXXXXXX said a primary focus should be communal lands where 80 percent of Zimbabweans live. Before the economy collapsed, he said the communal areas produced 80 percent of farm output consumed in the country. (NOTE: These numbers are indicative but not accurate. More than 30 percent of Zimbabweans live in urban areas, so somewhat less than 80 percent live on communal lands. But communal lands have long been the main source of Zimbabwe’s domestic food supply. END NOTE.) Production dramatically decreased with the collapse of the economy as small farmers were no longer able to access inputs. Another factor was the Grain Marketing Board’s requirement that crops be sold to it. It then failed to pay farmers. XXXXXXXXXXXX stated that international assistance would be necessary to resuscitate the economy. But lesser steps were important. He volunteered that the Ambassador’s Self Help Program had once been present in communal areas. It was a powerful indication of U.S. interest in helping Zimbabweans, and was of tremendous assistance to those who benefitted from projects.

¶8. (C) Sanctions and ZDERA. XXXXXXXXXXXX said sanctions on individuals should remain if justified by the behavior of these individuals. Sanctions on parastatals that were contributing or could contribute to the economy should be lifted. With regard to ZDERA, XXXXXXXXXXXX acknowledged that the IMF and World Bank had ceased activities in Zimbabwe before ZDERA was enacted. The economy was already on a downhill trajectory because of misguided economic policies and the disastrous land reform policy.

[Specifically, because of the always disastrous austerity measures demanded by the World Bank, and enacted by ZANU-PF from 1991-1996. Read Antonia Juhasz' article:

The Tragic Tale of the IMF in Zimbabwe
by Antonia Juhasz, The Daily Mirror of Zimbabwe
March 7th, 2004

Austerity was why the ZANU-PF was becoming more unpopular, as happens everywhere on the planet where it is applied. According to Munyaradzi Gwisai, it was the unilaterally imposed austerity that caused the creation of the MDC in the first place (according to Munyaradzi Gwisai, who I respect a lot: "that same government had also now adopted economic programmes that had bought massive poverty, suffering on ordinary people, I'm talking about ESAP." It is beyond ironic, that they have now become the party that wants to impose it as a matter of perpetual policy. - MrK]

But the passage of ZDERA was like slashing an already deflating tire. Many Zimbabweans viewed ZDERA as an attempt to hurt them when they were already suffering. As such, said XXXXXXXXXXXX, ZDERA has a large symbolic value and should be repealed.
¶9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX
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COMMENT
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¶10. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX’s comments on ZANU-PF are representative of a large part of the party. There is little doubt that if a secret party election were held, Mugabe and his inner circle would lose their positions. But Mugabe, aided by the securocrats and through fear, still has control. On sanctions and ZDERA, most ZANU-PF members, even moderates, tell us they believe sanctions, especially on parastatals, and ZDERA have hurt the economy (though they cannot cite evidence for this claim).

[It is hard to tell if the Ambassador is lying or innumerate. However, there is ample evidence of the impact of the Jan.1 2002 credit freeze on my blog. It also makes common sense, because economic sanctions have been imposed on many countries around the world, including Iraq, where it led to the deaths of an estimated 500,000 children, from lack of access to food and medicine. Until Jan. 1 2002 when ZDERA came into force, Zimbabwe had a growing trade surplus, 2002 is the first year to show a trade deficit. If you look at the Zimbabwe Dollar/US Dollar chart, you see the massive accelleration inflation into hyperinflation, in 2002 and beyond. Freezing the state's lines of credit leads to a fall in trade (which mainly occurs on credit). And that can be seen in the drastic fall of tobacco exports from 2002 onwards. Remember that Fast Track land reform, on which this is usually and conveniently blamed, started in 2000, not in 2002. - MrK]

XXXXXXXXXXXX’s view is more nuanced than most. XXXXXXXXXXXX’s view on ZDERA is what many in the MDC-T have been telling us: It is serving no real purpose other than to provide a convenient whipping boy for ZANU-PF. END COMMENT RAY

Labels: SANCTIONS, WIKILEAKS CABLES, ZDERA