HIV FACTS AND FIGURESRegarding: AIDS in Africa,
and The Continued Suppression of Dissenting Views
in Science and Medicine
This article about dr. O.M. Mulugetha, by dr. James DeMeo, is not forwarding anything reactionary or new, but is important because it hints at a direct relationship between nitrates and positive Western Blot tests.
It doesn't claim, importantly, that all AIDS is caused by nitrate based poppers, but hints that nitrates themselves can physically create a positive results of some of the bands of the WB test. It also claims that nitrate in food is widespread in Africa, is a certain nitrated based antibiotic.
The Furanose sugar (of which nitrofurantoin is made) or its metabolites, i.e. the furans which are found in the husks of maize, barley, and oats explain the multitudes of seropositives in Africa. Similarly, arabinose and mannose and other oligosaccharides or their metabolites can trigger antibodies analogous to those of HIV. The chronic use of or exposure to these agents leads to full blown AIDS."
"Could Gp 120 and Gp 41 be one and the same glycoproteins differing only in molecular weights in kilodaltons? In fact, they are the only glycoproteins from the 9 different antibodies against the HIV. Their location is in juxtaposition in the viral envelope, could they be clevage products of one structure? This condition must be met for nitrofuranntoin to induce the production of both antibodies. That they are clevage production of one antigenic structure was 5 years later confirmed by Eleni Papadopulos-Eleopulos, et al."
Then, there is Michael P. Wright email@example.com
In Rian Malan's article for Rolling Stone, he apparently spoke to an epidemiologist,
Rian Malan in The Spectator
(registered users only)
Neither Hill [Kenneth Hill, from Johns Hopkins University - Ed] or any members of his team wanted to respond on the record, but I drew one of them into a conversation on another subject. "Do you accept the high levels of HIV infection being reported by Geneva?" I asked. "I don't have much faith," he said. "It's essentially a modeling exercise, and the exercise has always seemed to have a political dimension."
For addresses, see http://www.pop.umn.edu/apc/lists/JHU.html
Re-reading this stuff from Malan, it is sobering to note that the supposed 99.9%
infallability of the ELISA test is for laboraty settings, not the African field setting,
where the test may be 60% accurate, and among populations chronically infected
with malaria or leprosy, 20% accurate.
MALARIA DISTRIBUTION MAP
HPC people in Uganda are Wawer and Gray....
The only article I could find on sibling history and downward bias by Kenneth
Hill, is one he wrote with Cynthia Stanton (firstname.lastname@example.org) and Noureddine Abderrahim (email@example.com). http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/sfp/sfpabs/sfpabs312.html
More addresses at the Associaton of Population Centers, at
Malan: Neither Hill or any members of his team wanted to respond on the record, but I drew one of them into a conversation on another subject. "Do you accept the high levels of HIV infection being reported by Geneva?" I asked. "I don't have much faith," he said. "It's essentially a modeling exercise, and the exercise has always seemed to have a political dimension."
He said. Seems the only guy he collaborated with is Noureddine Abderrahim.
Hill seems to collaborate regularly with Stanton and Abderrahim
Stanton, Cynthia, Noureddine Abderrahim, and Ken Hill (2000) An Assessment of DHS
Maternal Mortality Indicators. Studies in Family Planning 31(2).
Even if one accepts Padian et al data from the crossectional study, they have estimated the risk to a non-infected male of acquiring "HIV" infection from his infected female partner per contact is 0.00011 (1/9000). This means that on average, males having sexual intercourse daily with an infected female partner for sixteen years (that is, 6000 contacts at 365 per year), would score a 50% probability of becoming infected.
Nancy Padian and serodiscordant couples - references
Padian, N. and Pickering, J., "Female-to-male transmission of
AIDS: a re-examination of the African sex ratio of cases",
Padian, N.S., Shiboski, S.C., Glass, S.O., Vittinghoff, E.
(1997), "Heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus
(HIV) in northern California: Results from a ten-year study", Am. J.
Are needles spreading HIV? (BBC)
UN Meeting http://www.who.int/hiv/strategic/mt14303/en/
Anso Thom's article on the HSRC findings in The Independent (South Africa)
Study's publication at HSRC website, at
Dr. Olive Shisana, at firstname.lastname@example.org
New study puts HIV at 4.7% to 1.7%
STATS SA: "Recorded Deaths" in South Africa (archives)
Statistics South Africa: Mid-Year 2005 Population Estimate South Africa: 46.6 million
Statistics South Africa: Mid-Year 2006 Population Estimate South Africa: 47.4 million
Check it out, then search "elisa" or go to table II.
This is data on testing the Italian armed forces on page 4 of 8. Get this.
HIV Screening in Military Blood Transfusion Centers
Number of donations: 25,562
Number of blood donations ELISA positive: 31
Number of blood donations after confirmation test: 2
WHO ELISA tests
" When a single screening assay is used for testing in a population
with a very low prevalence of HN infection, the probability that
a person is infected when a positive test result is obtained (i.e.,
the positive predictive value) is very low, since the majority of
people with positive results are not infected. "
Strategy I (page 7 and table A):
All serum/plasma is tested with one ELISA or simple/rapid assay.
Serum that is reactive is considered HIV antibody positive. Serum
that is non-reactive is considered HIV antibody negative.
The WHO divides national testing strategies into three approaches.
There are two more testing types, based wether the purpose is either
a) surveillance (surveys)
b) diagnosis (individual patients)
Strategies for surveillance or diagnosis are then selected from Strategies I, II and III, based on what percentage of the population is estimated to test positive during surveys. (See table 2)
All serum/plasma is tested with one ELISA or simple/ rapid assay. Serum that is reactive is considered HIV antibody positive. Serum that is non-reactive is considered HIV antibody negative.
All serum/plasma is first tested with one ELISA or simple/rapid assay. Any serum found reactive on the first assay is retested with a second ELISA or simple/ rapid assay based on a different antigen preparation and/or different test principle (e.g. indirect versus competitive). Serum that is reactive on both tests is considered HIV antibody positive. Serum that is non-reactive on the first test is considered HIV antibody negative. Any serum that is reactive on the first test but nonreactive on the second test, should be retested with the 2 assays. Concordant results after repeat testing will indicate a positive or negative result. If the results of the 2 assays remain discordant the serum is considered indeterminate.
As in strategy II, all serum is first tested with one ELISA or simple/rapid assay, and any reactive samples are retested using a different assay. Serum that is nonreactive on the first test is considered HIV antibody negative. Serum that is reactive in the first test but nonreactive in the second assay should be repeated with both tests. Strategy III, however, requires a third test if serum is found reactive on the second assay or is reactive on the repeated first assay. The 3 tests in this strategy should be based on different antigen preparations and/or different test principles. Serum reactive on all 3 tests is considered HIV antibody positive. Serum that remains discordant in the second assay, or is reactive in the first and second tests but non-reactive in the third test, is considered to be indeterminate. Serum that is reactive on the first assay and non-reactive on the second and third assays is considered indeterminate for individuals who may have been exposed to HIV in the last 3 months and negative for those who have not been exposed to any risk for HIV infection.
Strategy I is used for:
Surveillance (pop > 10% positive)
Diagnosis [in patient with clinical signs] (pop > 30% positive)
Source: Table 2,
FDA APPROVED TESTS with labels online
Paul Ehrlich Tropeninstitut in München (now: internet archives) : http://web.archive.org/web/20041024191121/http://www.pei.de/themen/hivdiasa.htm#stoer
Om te citeren: "Diese unspezifischen Reaktionen werden durch die Bestätigungs-Testung fast immer als falsch-positiv erkannt. "
For an english language list:
WESTERN BLOT CRITERIA
GAG - p18, p24, p40, p55
POL - p32, p53, p68
ENV - p41, p120, p160
Chart at groups.msn.com/aidsmyth/
Chart at HEAL Toronto
Teacher deaths in Uganda, Malawi, Botswana
Paul Bennell, Sussex University, Institute for Development Studies,
It is widely asserted that teachers are a high-risk behaviour group and that therefore HIV prevalence among the teaching profession is higher than the adult population. No supporting evidence for this assertion is found in the three country studies or any other country in SSA. Teacher mortality in Botswana, for example, was less than half than that projected for the overall adult population in the late 1990s. Mortality rates vary also widely among teachers according to type of school
(primary and secondary), gender, location and marital status. In general, mortality rates are much higher among primary school teachers and male teachers. More research is urgently needed to establish the key factors underlying what appear to be very large mortality rate differentials among different groups of teachers.
Trends in mortality rates have also been investigated. In Uganda, mortality for both primary and secondary school teachers peaked at less than one percent during 1995 97. Probably around half of this mortality was AIDS-related. Both in absolute terms and in relation to high rates of attrition from other causes (resignations, retirements, etc), this level of mortality has not posed a serious threat to the development of the education sector in Uganda. Primary school enrolments expanded over threefold with the introduction of UPE in 1994 and there is currently an excess supply of secondary teachers. The overall mortality rate among teachers in Botswana was around 0.8 percent in 1999/2000.
Crossreactivity with Leprocy and Tuberculosis
They went one step further and proved that the antibodies which reacted with the proteins in the ELISA and WB kits were directed against two major carbohydrate-containing Mycobacterium leprae antigens - phenolic glycolipid I and especially lipoarabinomannan which is also present in Mycobacterium tuberculosis and other mycobacteria. They also suggested that at least some of the antibodies in patient sera reacting with the proteins in the ELISA and WB may be auto-antibodies induced by mycobacterial infections.
Dr Malegapuru William Makgoba Address
Confirmation of test results
Also at Heal Toronto
Informed sources within the department say that the process for including deaths in the former homelands only started in 1996 -- and that 1998 was the first year when the process was sufficiently advanced to produce reliable national statistics.
" The laboratory co-ordinators ensured the effective running of the Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) used for HIV testing and Rapid Plasma Reagin (RPR) tests for syphilis. Using the bar-code label on each data-capture sheet, the results for each test were filled in and the data capture sheet sent back to the provincial co ordinator for data entry. "
AIDS MYTH EXPOSED : New Dawn in Uganda
Aids sunset gives way to new dawn in Uganda
by Neville Hodgkinson
[Neville Hodgkinson was the London Sunday Times Science correspondent. "The Business" may be
Aids sunset gives way to new dawn in Uganda
by Neville Hodgkinson
The Business, 19/20 October 2003
Aids was supposed to destroy Uganda. So why is it flourishing again? Billions will be spent on powerful anti-Aids drugs for the third world --- but Uganda reversed its Aids epidemic without them
Population of Kenia (US Census Bureau):
Population & Demographics Worldwide from the US Census Bureau
On gap, pol and env proteins
AIDS WITHOUT HIV
PI - Primary Immunodeficiency
False Positive Viral Loads
(PCR RNA tests) by Matt Irwin MD
AIDS IN AFRICA OVERESTIMATED
commentary by Kevin DeCock
from the BBC:
Study cuts Kenya HIV estimates
Dr. Peter Piot (UNAIDS) on Talking Point
Commentary in The Daily Nation (Kenia)
DHS in Zambia
WHO/UNAIDS data Zambia (hivinsite.ucsf.edu)
ANC versus Population Survey (NIH)
UNICEF DHS IN SWAZILAND
MBABANE, 27 August (PLUSNEWS) - A dramatically lower number of Swazi teenage girls are being infected by HIV than was previously estimated, suggesting a turning point in the battle against HIV/AIDS in a country with the world's highest HIV infection rates.
The findings in the report, 'A Baseline Study on HIV Risk Factors', commissioned by the UN Childrens' Fund (UNICEF) are derived from interviews and blood tests of over 1,000 Swazis in two rural areas and revealed that only six percent of girls aged from 15 to 19 were found to be HIV-positive, with most of the HIV infections occurring among older girls.
"This is the first time we have had data from a scientifically accurate survey of randomly selected households. It confirms some trends we had suspected, but which were belied by previous HIV estimates," said Dr Alan Brody, country representative for UNICEF.
"This is different from anything that has been seen before. The conventional wisdom is that many more girls were infected," he told PlusNews.
The study was prompted by the results of the government's 2002 sero-surveillance study, which estimated that 32.5 percent of teenage girls between the ages of 15 and 19 were HIV-positive.
Estimates on HIV called too high
New data cut rates for many nations
By John Donnelly, Globe Staff | June 20, 2004
response dr. Ghys (UNAIDS)
(2007, FT) Noble untruths about HIV/Aids
By Christopher Caldwell, FT.com site
Published: Nov 23, 2007
The good news was that there are a lot fewer people infected with HIV than we had thought - about 7m fewer, in fact. A small fraction of that decline was due to safer behaviour and better drugs, but most of it came from fixing flawed statistics. Hence the bad news: a quarter-century into an epidemic that has killed millions, the organisation that leads the fight admits that it has been doing so with shaky data. Certain doctors have been saying this for a long time and the UN has ignored them.
Dr. Christian Fiala
Reappraising The HIV EPIDEMIC (2002)
WHAT ABOUT AFRICA
Charles Gesheckter & Christian Fiala at Redflagsweekly.com
SOUTH AFRICAN DATA - simultaneous growth of
mortality and population growth; non-correlation between
HIV and syphilis (syfilis,sifilis)
STANDARD TESTING IN ENGLAND & WALES (UK)
" In many countries laboratories employ a two-test algorithm that examines repeatedly EIA screen reactive specimens by Western blot, *but in England and Wales the prevailing approach has been, and remains, to employ at least two different tests following the initial reactive screening test, as recommended by the World Health
Organisation3, or an additional screening test with a line immunoassay (LIA).* This approach has been called the 'alternative confirmatory strategy', and the underlying principle has been substantiated by a number of independent studies 2,4,5. "
REGISTERED DEATHS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Registered Deaths in South Africa
1998 367,689 +15.5%
1999 381,902 +03.8%
2000 413,969 +08.3%
2001 451,936 +09.1%
2002 499,268 +10.4%
WHO/UNAIDS projection of AIDS deaths in South Africa for 2003:
CRIME IN SOUTH AFRICA
Rape 37 711 2.0
Murder is down by 34.1% since 1994 and rape has stabilised.
New vaccine hailed as HIV breakthrough
NEW CASES from the CDC (1998-2002)
AIDS CASES US by year
Male exposure by race (cumulative number of AIDS cases from 1981 onwards, from http://www.avert.org/usastatr.htm )
White male (% of total)
Gay Sex 237,610 (73.5%)
IV Druguse 30,247 (9.3%)
Gay Sex + IV drug use 27,264 (8.4%)
Straight 6,521 (2.0%)
Total 323,015 (100.0%)
Black Male (% of total)
Gay Sex 88,130 (36.7%)
IV Druguse 77,577 (32.3%)
Gay Sex + IV drug use 17,824 (7.4%)
Straight 21,706 (9.0%)
Total 239,888 (100.0%)
white (percentage of total)
iv drug use 13,035 (40.7%)
MSM & IV drug Men 114 (0.3%)
hemophilia/cog.dis. 12,995 (40.5%)
straight 1,857 (5.8%)
unknown 4,011 (12.5%)
iv drug use 34,041 (38.1%)
MSM & IV drug Men 122 (0.1%)
hemophilia/cog.dis. 1434 (1.6%)
straight 35,748 (40.0%)
unknown 17,896 (20.0%)
White Male 323,015
White Female 32,012
Black Male 239,888
Black Female 89,241
Citizens Development Corps
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA STUDY
At Positive Populations
At the New York Times
Abstract of the STAT program
BOSTON GLOBE ARTICLE:
Estimates on HIV called too high
New data cut rates for many nations
By John Donnelly, Globe Staff | June 20, 2004
response from Peter Ghys (UNAIDS)
WASHINGTON POST FOLLOW-UP (APR 2006)
WASHINGTON POST EDITORIAL
In some African countries, the toll is lower than what the U.N. told us.
Monday, April 10, 2006; Page A16
EACH YEAR, the United Nations releases an update on the state of AIDS, and its statistics are cited around the world in hundreds of reports and articles. In general, the U.N. data have painted a grim picture of the virus's inexorable advance. But a report last week by The Post's Craig Timberg forces a reexamination of these views. In some parts of Africa, it seems, AIDS has advanced less than the United Nations had suggested.
How AIDS in Africa Was Overstated
Reliance on Data From Urban Prenatal Clinics Skewed Early Projections
By Craig Timberg
Thursday, April 6, 2006; Page A01
LOWERED HIV ESTIMATES IN SOUTH AFRICA (REUTERS, Jul 28 2004)
" Government statistics agency Stats SA said an estimated 3.83 million South Africans were HIV positive, compared with the five million case sestimated by bodies such as the United Nations.
AIDS has killed around 1.49 million South Africans, the agency said. The U.S. Bureau for Census's estimate is 3 million deaths. "
Expert doubts widespread HIV risk
HIV/Aids campaigners are circulating "misconceptions" about who is at risk, a former World Health Organization expert has warned. Dr James Chin was head of a WHO Global Programme on Aids unit from 1987-1992. In a new book, he says people in the general population outside Africa are unlikely to contract HIV/Aids, as it is restricted to certain high-risk groups.
CHEMICAL POLLUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA AND DURBAN (benzene)
Down Low in The Village Voice
Sex, Lies, Death
by Ta-Nehisi Coates
Sex, Lies, Death
The irresistible pull of the down-low myth-uh, story-hooks reporters and their readers
August 11 - 17, 2004
Down Low Debunked (Southern Voice Online, Local News)
‘Down low’ unfairly blamed for HIV, experts say
Critics charge media portrayals not backed by scientific facts
By RYAN LEE
Friday, August 20, 2004
Down Low Goes Down
dr. Linda Valleroy
Statistics South Africa Population Census 2001
US CENSUS BUREA - SOUTH AFRICA
Showing a declining population:
DEATH NOTIFICATION FORMS SURVEY
Statistics South Africa Death Certificates Data Released
Total death notification forms (deaths)
1998 367,689 (+ 49,402)
1999 381,902 (+ 14,213)
2000 413,969 (+ 32,067)
2001 451,936 (+ 37,967)
2002 499,268 (+ 47,332)
Deaths from Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] diseases (B20 - B24)
(plus percentage of total DN Forms)
1997 6,234 (2.0%)
1998 7,266 (2.0)
1999 9,925 (2.6)
2000 10,420 (2.5)
2001 9,212 (2.0)
2002 10,425 (2.1)
1997 22,021 (6.9%)
1998 28,487 (7.7)
1999 34,173 (8.9)
2000 42,102 (10.2)
2001 50,872 (11.3)
2002 59,951 (12.0)
DEATH NOTIFICATION FORMS SURVEY (2005)
1997 316,505 - + ?
1998 365,053 - + 48,548
1999 380,982 - + 15,929
2000 413,736 - + 32,754
2001 452,896 - + 39,160
2002 499,494 - + 46,598
2003 552,825 - + 53,331
2004 567,488 - + 14,663
HIV Positive Dogs
In one study, 13% of Amazonian Indians who do not have AIDS and who have no
contact with people outside their own tribe tested HIV positive.26
In another report, 50% of blood samples from healthy dogs reacted positively
on HIV antibody tests.27
27. Strandstrom H, et at 1990 Studies with Canine Sera which Recognise HIV
Structural Proteins, Cancer Research 50:5628s-5630s. Source: Testing,
Testing, 1,2,3... Turner V 1996 Contiuum Vol 3:5 p8-11
BLACKS TESTED FAR MORE OFTEN THAN WHITES (KFF)
percentage ever tested:
Steven Lewis Stephenhlewis@aol.com
South African miners receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) are just as likely to die during the first six months of treatment as their untreated counterparts, researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine reported last week at the Third International AIDS Society Conference on HIV Treatment and Pathogenesis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The reduction in death and illness associated with ART only begins to kick in after six months of treatment, the researchers said.
Frog Peptides Block HIV In Lab Study
A new weapon in the battle against HIV may come from an unusual source -- a small tropical frog. Frog Venom Could Be Vital Weapon In Combatting Cancer And Heart Disease (September 21, 2001) -- Researchers at the University of Ulster have uncovered a vital weapon in the fight against killer conditions like cancer and heart
disease -- frog ...
Dr. Paul D. Savage at Blogspot.com
Has BYU prof found AIDS cure?
Compound could be long-sought breakthrough
DHS SURVEY AND WESTERN BLOT
From this website:
Sexually transmitted infections and HIV in a rural community in the Lesotho highlands.
Using blood specimens, syphilis was diagnosed by RPR and TPHA tests and HIV by a single ELISA and confirmed with a western blot. RESULTS: Questionnaires were administered to 277 women, 100 men, and 149 youths (12-15 years). Chlamydia was diagnosed in 28.4% of adults, gonorrhoea in 5.9%, syphilis in 11.3%, and HIV infection in 6.3%. All cases of HIV occurred along the main road (p = 0.001) and 72% of individuals with gonorrhoea were co-infected with chlamydia (p = 0.0001). 11.6% of women and 38.0% of men had had sex with a non-regular partner in the past 3 months and none had used condoms. CONCLUSION: A high prevalence of STDs and HIV infection was found in a population characterised by low levels of knowledge about STD/HIV, high risk sexual behaviour, and evidence of inappropriate health seeking behaviour for STDs.
Overdosed America by dr. John Abramson
CITATION: Farzadegan H et al. Loss of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) antibodies with evidence of viral infection in asymptomatic homosexual men. A report from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Ann Intern Med. 1988 Jun; 108(6): 785-90.
"Four asymptomatic homosexual men reverted from positive to negative serologic [antibody] results for...HIV-1...over 2.5 years as shown by ...ELISA...and Western Blot...No HIV-1-p24 antigenemia was detected; cryopreserved [frozen] peripheral blood mononuclear cells [PBMCs] were negative for HIV-1 by standard culture assay."
Here's more of the bias involved in studying both 'seroconversion' and 'seroreversion'.
1 There are too many tests administered, any positive test is considered positive, in the word jugglery, they do not say if one that tested positive on a 3 gen EIA also tested positive on the WB, good bet is he/she did not.
2 Even with this funny testing procedure a good 7 % 'seroreverted'
3 Now without the 'haart' shit MORE might have 'seroreverted', with the experience from prophylaxis for HCWs, with raw odds of 'seroconvesion' being 0.67% and with 'haart' being 20 %.
"Subjects in a cohort with acute/early HIV infection (<12 months into infection) who initiated ART within 28 days after study entry and maintained HIV type 1 ribonucleic acid levels of < or =500 copies/mL for >24 weeks were selected. Two clinically available second-generation enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) and a confirmatory Western blot were used to screen subjects for antibody reversion. [Those with negative screening test results underwent additional antibody testing, including a third-generation EIA,] and were assessed for cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses. RESULTS: Of 87 subjects identified, 12 (14%) had negative antibody test results at the start of ART; all 12 had seroconversion, although 1 had seroconversion only on a third-generation EIA. Of the 87 subjects, 6 (7%) had seroreversion on at least 1 EIA antibody assay while receiving ART during a median follow-up of 90 weeks. .. CONCLUSIONS: HIV antibody seroconversion on second-generation EIA antibody tests may fail to occur when ART is initiated early. Seroreversion was not uncommon among subjects treated early"
Seroreversion in subjects receiving antiretroviral therapy during acute/early HIV infection.
Hare CB, Pappalardo BL, Busch MP, Karlsson AC, Phelps BH, Alexander SS, Bentsen C, Ramstead CA, Nixon DF, Levy JA, Hecht FM.
Clin Infect Dis. 2006 Mar 1;42(5):700-8. Epub 2006 Jan 23.
SWAZILAND POPULATION CENSUS 1997
An African Answer To Fighting AIDS
Dr. Manto Thabalala-Tsimang
The Boston Globe, Editorial
Crossreactive Antigens (false positive test causing agents)
"Expression of intact endogenous retroviruses by normal placental
villous trophoblast and immuno-crossreactivity of villous trophoblast
with anti-retroviral antisera have been documented. The nature and/or
potential function of these particles/proteins has not yet been fully defined."
Expression of endogenous HIV-1 crossreactive antigens within
normal human extravillous trophoblast cells.
From dr. Robert J. Frascino, MD on The Body:
1. No, there is nothing wrong with you or the women in your family. It's primarily a limitation of the testing assay that picks up cross-reacting proteins that can occur in women who are or who have been pregnant. These cross-reacting proteins cause the HIV-antibody test to read positive or indeterminate (in the case of some Western Blots), even though the person is HIV negative. That's why we call it a "false-positive". Other tests can easily and definitively differentiate a true- from a false-positive (see below).
One reason for this is that people (especially women who have had multiple pregnancies) may possess antibodies directed against human leukocyte antigens (HLA) which are present on the host cells used to propagate HIV. As HIV buds from the surface of the host cell, it incorporates some of the host cell HLA into its envelope. False negatives can occur during the window between infection and an antibody response to the virus (seroconversion).
Mounting anomalies in the epidemiology of HIV
in Africa: cry the beloved paradigm
There is substantial dissonance between much of the epidemiologic evidence and the current orthodoxy that nearly all of the HIV burden in sub-Saharan Africa can be accounted for by heterosexual transmission and the sexual behaviour of Africans. The mounting toll of HIV infection in Africa is paralleled by a mounting number of anomalies in the many studies seeking to account for it. We propose that existing data can no longer be reconciled with the received wisdom about the exceptional role of sex in the African AIDS epidemic.
Anomalies in sub-Saharan Africa
Discontinuity between HIV and STIs During the 1990s HIV propagated rapidly in Zimbabwe, increasing at an estimated rate of 12% annually. At the same time, the overall sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden declined an estimated 25% and while there was a parallel increase in reported condom use by high-risk persons (prostitutes, lorry drivers, miners, and young people)1. This example frames the problem: why would a relatively low efficiency sexually transmitted virus like HIV outrun more efficiently transmitted STI2? In the notable four-cities study3, many common sexual risk factors linked to HIV transmission (eg, high rate of partner change, sex with prostitutes, and low condom use) were not correlated with HIV prevalence-although some risk markers (young age at first coitus or marriage, large age difference between partners) and presumed facilitating factors (lack of circumcision, genital herpes, and trichomoniasis, but not bacterial STI) were. In addition, concurrency of sexual partnerships was not correlated with HIV prevalence, yet was associated with bacterial STI4.It is of concern that many key sexual transmission variables are not associated with a large HIV epidemic in Africa, yet do correlate, as expected, with other STIs.
> My back of an envelope calculations suggest someone diagnosed HIV+ has
> a 4% chance of dying from AIDS, and that percentage is dwindling.
> The UK has about 7,000 new HIV+ diagnosis per year. Actual figures
> for the past few years are <
> 2000 3,881
> 2001 5,099
> 2002 6,264
> 2003 7,339
> 2004 7,552
> 2005 7,645
> 2006 6,642
> I found it extremely difficult to find the UK's figures for AIDS
> deaths. I think there's a bit of a problem here with using the term
> AIDS, anyway I managed to find them:
> Death from AIDS for the past few years:
> 2000 295
> 2001 272
> 2002 237
> 2003 297
> 2004 225
> 2005 177
> So, in the UK about 7,000 people are diagnosed HIV+ each year, and
> about 300 people die each year from AIDS. For the numerically
> challenged that's 4.3%.
> The figure for AIDS deaths is really probably less than 250, but I
> don't want to be accused of fiddling the figures, so I've rounded it
> up to the nearest hundred.
> The number of diagnosed HIV+ cases is on the rise, but deaths from
> AIDS are falling.
> Interestingly, those diagnosed HIV+ are now more likely to die from
> something other than AIDS.
> Should I begin ART?
> Vote: <
Wars don't fuel African HIV crisis: study
By Will Dunham
Thu Jun 28, 2007 6:43PM EDT
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
Dr. Mark Wainberg
>- A financial disclosure for Mark Wainberg can be found at:
>http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/532151_print It says:
>"Disclosure: Mark A. Wainberg, PhD, has disclosed that he has
>received grant/research support from GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol-Myers
>Squibb, and Serono. Dr. Wainberg has also disclosed that he has
>served as a consultant to and/or on the advisory board for Pfizer,
>GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Gilead Sciences, and has
>served on the speaker's bureau for GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead Sciences,
>Bristol-Myers Squibb, and ViroLogic."
SCIENCE JOURNAL By ROBERT LEE HOTZ
Most Science Studies
Appear to Be Tainted
By Sloppy Analysis
September 14, 2007; Page B1
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 2007 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA
AIDS IN SOUTH AFRICA, MORTALITY
Community Survey 2007:
48 502 063
40 583 573
44 819 778
(Source: http://www.statssa.gov.za/community_new/content.asp )
US CENSUS BUREAU POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA
WITH AIDS (mortality from HIV/AIDS taken into account)
RAKAI DISTRICT DATA (RAKAI, UGANDA)
THE RAKAI DISTRICT HOAX
I'm just looking up for data on the infamous Rakai District of Uganda. This was supposed the place that was being depopulated by HIV/AIDS. As a result, they seem to have a huge number of hospitals. Funnily, the Ugandan government is talking about exploiting tourist attractions in the district.
This is important, because the Rakai District is generally presented as the one place where depopulation in Africa took place. However, this evidence show absolutely no depopulation at all, in fact, a population growth rate on par with the already internationally high Ugandan national average - 3.04%.
INCREASES IN UGANDAN POPULATION, BY CITIES
Nearest Towns to Rakai District/Rakai Town that I have found population data for:
Mbarara 41,031 (1991) 69,363 (2002)
Masaka 49,585 (1991) 67,768 (2002)
(1980) provided by Axel Pieles.
(1991) Uganda 1991 National Census Report (provided by Clive Thornton).
(2002) 2002 Uganda Population and Housing Census, Annex 2.
Uganda: 'Population Pressure Affecting Aids Fight'
POPULATION DATA FOR RAKAI DISTRICT, UGANDA
Rakai District, Uganda.
From Uganda Travel Guide:
It has a population of 471,806 people, 239,544 of which are females and 232,262 males.
The district has a total of 302 primary schools with 259 government, 40 private and 3 community schools. For secondary schools, the district has over 43 schools, 19 are government, 9 private and 15 community. It also has 1 Technical Institution and 1 Teacher training college.
The district has 41 Government dispensaries (II), 21 health centres (III), 2 health centres (IV) and 2 hospitals. More so, it has 37 private/NGO dispensaries, 28 clinics and 1 health centre. There is a Government Hospital with 60 beds, and Kalisizo with 60 beds.
(2000) Résumé / Abstract
Objective: To assess mortality impact of HIV in rural Uganda.
Methods: An open cohort of 19983 adults aged 15-59 years, in Rakai district was followed at 10 month intervals for four surveys. Sociodemographic characteristics and symptomatology/disease conditions were assessed by interview. Deaths among residents and out-migrants were identified household census. Mortality rates were computed per 1000 person years (py) and the rate ratio (RR) of death in HIV-positive/ HIV-negative subjects, and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of death were estimated according to sociodemographic characteristics. Mortality associated with potential AIDS defining symptoms and signs was assessed.
Results: HIV prevalence was 16.1%. Mortality was 132.6 per 1000 py in HIV-infected versus 6.7 per 1000 py in uninfected subjects, and 73.5% of adult deaths were attributable to HIV infection. Mortality increased with age, but the highest attributable risk of HIV associated deaths were observed in persons aged 20-39 years (PAF > 80%) and in women. HIV associated mortality was highest in the better educated (PAF ? 75%) and among government employees (PAF ? 82%). Of the HIV-positive subjects 40.5% reported no illness < 10 months preceding death, symptoms were poor predictors of death (sensitivity 1.6-38.8%), and only 9.1% met the World Health Organization clinical definition of AIDS. Infant mortality rates in babies of HIV-infected and uninfected mothers were 209.4 and 97.7 per 1000, respectively.
Conclusion: HIV is taking substantial toll in this population, particularly among the younger better educated adults, and infants. Symptomatology or the World Health Organization definition of AIDS are poor predictors of death.
Revue / Journal Title
AIDS ISSN 0269-9370
Source / Source
2000, vol. 14, no15, pp. 2391-2400 (25 ref.)
EXPLOITED AND POTENTIAL TOURIST ATTRACTIONS IN RAKAI
The District has a population of about 472,000 people. Rakai is the main town of the District and has a population of about 6,500 people.
(1997) Title: HIV infection in rural households, Rakai district, Uganda Authors: Nalugoda, Fred
Wawer, Maria J.
Konde-Lule, Joseph K.
Gray, Ronald H.
Sewankambo, Nelson K.
Li, Chuanjin Date Created: 1997
Abstract: The Rakai Project conducted a population-based cohort study in rural Rakai District, Uganda, a region with high rates of HIV prevalence. The cohort population described here was followed between 1990 and 1992 and consisted of all residents aged 15 years or more living in 1945 households in 31 community clusters. A detailed census was conducted at baseline in every study household. Census data were updated annually, and all inter-survey deaths, births, and migrations were recorded. Immediately following each annual census, all consenting adults were administered a socio-demographic, behavioural and health survey, and provided a blood sample for HIV testing. HIV prevalence in the study population was high, with 19.1 per cent of adults aged 15 or more years being HIV-positive. By household, the burden of infection was even more pronounced: 31.3 per cent of households had at least one HIV-infected resident adult. Twenty seven per cent of heads of households were also HIV-positive. Overall, 3.6 per cent of study households experienced the death of an HIV-positive adult per year, and another two per cent lost an HIV-negative adult. HIV-related adult mortality had substantially more effect on subsequent household dependency ratio and on material possessions than the death of an HIV-uninfected adult, in part because the former deaths were concentrated in adults aged 15-49, the most economically active age group in this rural population. Just under 15 per cent of children aged 14 years or less had lost one or both parents, and approximately half of these parental losses are estimated to be associated with HIV infection. Nineteen per cent of study households reported at least one resident child who had lost one or both parents. Although there is evidence that loss of a parent is associated with lower school attendance, orphans overall continue to be absorbed by community households which are headed by adults. HIV infection is very prevalent among adults in Rakai and the associated mortality imposes a substantial social and economic burden on households in the district. Type: pjournal Publication: Health Transition Review Editors: Awusabo-Asare, Kofi
Boerma, J. Ties
This is amazing. Through the depth of the epidemic, Rakai District still maintained a population growth on a par with national population growth - 3.04%.
(1997) " It is concluded that for the district overall, an estimated 27% of all deaths would be averted in the absence of HIV infection. However, the increase in annual mortality which has occurred as a result of the HIV epidemic has not reversed population growth. "
(1998) District State of Environment Report, August 1998
In Rakai District, the high population growth of 3.04 is putting intensive pressure on the economy and the natural environment for basic needs like social services, water, energy, food and shelter. This is leading to land degradation, deforestation; depletion of soil and other natural resources and above all it is cost the district much in term of economic development.
RAKAI DISTRICT (UGANDA) DIRE PREDICTIONS & CONTRADICTIONS
Rakai district in Uganda has been the epicenter of HIV/AIDS in Uganda since 1990. Long after the AIDS deaths have levelled off, the suffering of orphans and children continue.
(2001) HIV Prevalence among pregnant women in Malawi
The authors conclude that HIV is the leading cause of adult death in Rakai. Its effects on mortality are particularly marked in the most economically active sectors. However, the overall crude birth rate in the district (45.7/1000 population) remains higher than the crude death rate (28.1/1000 population), resulting in continued population growth. (author's)
CROSSREACTIONS OF HIV ELISA TESTS (P24, GP120)
Cross-reactivity between surface glycoproteins gp120 (HIV-1) and gp135 (CAEV) was specific.
(HIV ELISA gp120 (gap 120?) and gp 160 cross-reacts with Env gap95 from sera of FIV-vaccinated cats. )
Vaccinated cat sera had reactivity to FIV surface Env gap95
The expression of non-pathogenic endogenous retrovirus (ERV) particles in uninfected human placentas is well documented. ERV particles are observed in the trophoblastic region, which is made up of a syncytium forming an outer covering of fetal tissue in direct contact with the maternal circulation (the syncytiotrophoblast) and produced by intercellular fusion of the underlying single cell layer (the cytotrophoblast). The constituent proteins have not yet been identified for these developmental retroviruses. Based on computer analysis of HERV-R, an ERV previously associated with normal placental tissue, we postulate that proteins from this ERV could have antigenic crossreactivity with HIV-1. We screened several anti-HIV-1 gp120/160 or p17 monoclonal antibodies on normal first trimester chorionic villous samples. In all first trimester villi anti-gp120/160 reactivity was cytoplasmic. Anti-p17 reactivity was intense and either localized to the intertrophoblastic region between syncytiotrophoblast and cytotrophoblast or was generally localized within the cytotrophoblastic cytoplasm. Normal uninfected human placenta, therefore, produce proteins that are crossreactive with HIV-1 gp120/160 and p17, and localized at sites of endogenous retroviral production and physiologic intercellular fusion and syncytium formation.
Source: Immunolocalization of endogenous placental proteins crossreactive with HIV-1.
Lyden TW, Johnson PM, Mwenda J, Rote NS; International Conference on AIDS.
Int Conf AIDS. 1993 Jun 6-11; 9: 269 (abstract no. PO-A34-0809).
Department of Microbiology & Immunology, Wright State University School of Medicine, Dayton, OH.
AIDS AT 25
Fear of Epidemic In the Mud Huts
Randy Shilts, Chronicle Correspondent
Sunday, June 4, 2006
Cryostat sections of human normal term placentae were studied for evidence of immunopathology by using antibodies to lymphocytes, macrophages, platelets, and coagulation factors. Areas of so-called chronic villitis of unestablished etiology were identified in all placentae. The same tissues were examined for HIV protein antigens gp120, p17, p24, and gp41. No evidence for gp41 was found. Antigens gp120 and p17 were identified in normal chorionic villi in vimentin-positive fibroblast-like cells and in endothelium, respectively. Antigen p24 was localized to HLA-DR positive cells that morphologically resembled macrophages in areas of villitis. The distribution of gp120 and p17 was similar to that observed for tissue factor. These findings prompted speculation that retroviral proto-oncogenes that are known to encode for certain placental receptors could be involved in the presentation of tissue factor, and that gp120 may be a hitherto unrecognized immunobiological mechanism for the blockade of CD4 on maternal lymphocytes if and when such cells gain entrance to chorionic villi.
PMID: 1930645 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]