Zambia’s recovery plan, Part III: the execution strategy
Zambia’s recovery plan, Part III: the execution strategyWritten by Prof Clive Chirwa
Thursday, May 28, 2009 3:08:27 PM
The Business Plan we prepared together in Part I mapped our future, the Stimulus Plan in Part II stipulated the areas we need to concentrate on in search of a quick recovery and this Part III details how much we can make from manufacturing using our perfected Execution Strategy. To facilitate our presentation, we will use copper as the natural resource that we want to take to finished products.
If you want to know more including other natural resources, there will be a one-day workshop in the first week of June in Lusaka, organised by Squaremark Market Solutions of Ndola. At the workshop we will give you the tools and the knowhow to the execution strategy. Contact details will be advertised in this newspaper.
What is the Execution Strategy? In its simplest term it is the tactic our country can use to make more money by creating conditions for primes, supply chains and converters to blossom. Since Zambia is a developing country, we need as a nation to direct our growth route. Otherwise, nobody will come and do that for us as investors are cherry pickers and are more interested in acquiring raw materials than developing Zambia. Therefore, the government should create primes that are supported by the private supply chains. The government can even go into joint ventures of 51/49 percentage weighting on primes.
Why are we doing this? The main reason is that the current revenue from taxes is too little for a country to function properly. Zambia gets about 80 per cent of its revenue from copper. But in money terms this is just peanuts. Statistics show us that in year 1990 with copper at US$2300 per tonne, we got US$423 million and in 2006 with copper at US6500 per tonne on average, we had only US$133 million from copper exports estimated at US$3 billion.
This shows how we have lost a lot from privatisation of mines. Tax on profit alone is not working because of the mining companies’ sophisticated systems to avoid paying taxes by channelling their profits through offshore companies on islands like Mauritius. With the new tax regime in place, Zambia in 2008 was suppose to have earned US$421 million from US$3 billion that was made by the mining companies, but it only received US$200 million. Why? No wonder we are depleting our international reserve faster than we built it.
The government must insist that the mining companies pay the rest. We cannot just throw away US$221 million because the multi-nationals have contested the new tax regime. These companies are using the same known tactics of taking the government to court, risk redundancies, threatening of taking the business or investment away from Zambia and so on. Indeed if you look closely at history, you will find that Zambia was doing well under ZCCM despite the inefficiency and lack of mature management skills. In the last 5 years of the boom, Zambia received less money despite very high prices of copper. This again depicts Zambia’s hard luck background that has never seen copper benefitting it apart from the short period when ZCCM was supreme.
If we really want to develop, it will not come from selling copper raw material. It will come from us using copper to its fullest potential and that is creating a vibrant manufacturing base that will add value. Let us turn that US$200 million tax revenue from copper to US$10 billion in five years. This is how we can do it.
The first thing to do is to identify the areas where our copper is used, that is in electrical/electronics, building, health care, food industry, cars, trains, ships, aerospace, telecommunications and many more.
Electrical uses of copper, including power transmission and generation, wires in building, telecommunication, electrical and electronic products, account for three quarters of the total global copper use that stands at over 933000 tonnes per year.
The use of copper in wires is the oldest and still the world has not got enough of it. This is why I propose it to the government to invest in the prime company. We currently have ZAMEFA that is doing an excellent job. But ZAMEFA is just too small with 347 employees to make a dent in that big global market and hence make money for Zambia. Especially with its current capacity of over 30,000 metric tonnes of copper rods, bare wires, power cables, building wires, and telecommunication cables.
We need between 4 and 5 more companies like ZAMEFA created by the government as primes. The companies will specialise in just drawing of copper rods and wires each having a capacity of minimum 50000 metric tonnes. Then private Zambian investors will make cables in Zambia and electric motors of any size. Even as we speak, Zambians can buy copper rods from ZAMEFA and extrude them further to wire and make cables, hence more value addition. The Zambian wire industry alone can create between 10000 to 20000 jobs. The global market is still open and in the next few years after the recession, the Asian, European and especially the African market will also pick up. We can become the African centre in copper wire production and bring home to Zambia needed revenue.
For instance a tonne of bare copper wire will bring in from US$20,000 for 1 mm diameter to US$112,000 for 0.05 mm diameter (visit: http://wires.co.uk/index.html). Even if we bring in half that we will still be making far more than selling copper raw materials at US$2500 per tonne.
The second government investment should be in making copper alloys.
Four companies can be formed for making brass (copper with zinc), bronze (copper with other metals such as aluminium, nickel, iron, etc), Beryllium copper (copper with beryllium and nickel), and cupronickel (Copper with nickel).
There are 28 countries that cast and wrought copper alloys. Why is South Africa doing it and we are not. We have all the raw materials. It is just the matter of combining them in proportions. Then the other five extruding firms and the private enterprises will work the alloys into tubes, rods, and plates. Copper alloys are usually used in high technology areas such as in automobile and aerospace, heat exchangers, military equipment and so on. Brass and bronze are used at the low end of the market while cupronickel and beryllium copper are used in high strength tools, oil fields, aerospace and military.
Brass, a combination of copper and zinc, is probably the most famous copper alloy. It can be found in house door knobs, hinges and locks. Also used in making bearings, fan blades and decorative parts. It is cheap and adds limited value to the product. It is mass produced due to its great demand in buildings. Typical brass products can be sold on average between US12000 per metric tonne to about US$20000 per tonne.
The cupronickel is mid range copper alloy containing 25 per cent nickel and is used mainly for coin making. Because copper and nickel mix so readily the cost of manufacture is moderate and we can be able to make a wide range of alloys. When you add 45 per cent nickel, the alloy becomes high in electrical resistivity and used in resistors, thermocouples, and in rheostats. The mostly used cupronickel is that containing 30 per cent nickel. This is the most important and widely used for condenser tubes in steam-power plants as it is non-corrosive and possesses high resistant to oxidation at high temperatures. Depending on the type of cupronickel parts, the value addition begins at around US$35000 per tonne and US$45000 per tonne. General applications are in ship building, oil and gas pipelines, heat exchangers and condensers, hydraulic lines, for those in deserts use it in desalination units that make drinking water from sea water.
Beryllium copper alloy is at the top end in value addition. The alloy is very strong and therefore used in making spring wire, expensive tools such as spanners, hammers, farming ploughs and cutting blades.
Due to its electrical conductivity, it is used in low-current contacts for batteries and electrical connectors. Since it has other properties of being non-sparking and physically tough and nonmagnetic, it is used in making tools that can safely be used in environments where there are explosive vapours and gases in an oil field. It is widely used as tools in all our mines because of non-sparking qualities. Above all beryllium has become the well preferred material in making armour piercing bullets as it has the drilling capability. The biggest bonus for us is that beryllium copper alloy has now entered the biggest market of all time, the telecommunications and computer electronics markets.
The big multinationals are constantly looking for ways to reduce the size and weight of their products such as mobile phones and computers without sacrificing performance. The unique combination of strength, electrical and thermal conductivity of beryllium copper make it an ideal choice for miniaturised components. The value addition here is can go up to US$120000 per metric tonne depending on application.
The four government firms each can create up 10000 jobs at different levels making a total of about 40000 jobs in copper alloy industry alone. The government’s primes will employ about 9000 employees and the rest will be in private hands that will be part of the supply chain and converter chain. The revenue for each yearly production of 50000 tonnes of beryllium copper alloy to be conservative is about US$1.75 billion at the low end to US$6 Billion at the top end.
In health care, copper has been recognised as a hygienic material since the dawn of civilisation. Indeed when the first European settlers came to Zambia they were amazed to find that the people around Bwana Mkubwa in Ndola used copper canister and containers for their medical herbs and cleaned tools in copper basins. Research has now been supported by scientific output showing that copper is antimicrobial, that is it inhibits the growth of harmful pathogens-bacteria, moulds, algae, fungi and viruses. The latest research output has even shown evidence of copper’s antimicrobial effect on a range of disease-causing organisms including MRSA, Clostridium difficile, Ecoli, Listeria monocytogenes, Influenza A and Aspergillums Niger.
In Zambia many patients die each year in hospital because they have been infected by a hospital acquired germ. For instance, hospital-acquired infections in England cost about a £1 billion in treating patients who were in the first place admitted to hospital with a completely different disease. About 5000 patients die of complications from infections that they contracted in hospitals.
These hospital-acquired infections are preventable. Replacing frequently touched surfaces with copper and its high copper content alloys such as brass and bronze, which are naturally antimicrobial, could be an important infection control measure and complement other measures such as hand washing, patient screening and isolation, and improve cleaning. Frequently touched surfaces in hospitals which could be made from copper and its alloys are: door handles, push plates, light switches, bed rails, grab rails, intravenous poles, dispensers (alcohol gel, paper towel, soap), dressing trolleys, counter and table tops. Nobody so far has entered this market of using copper in hospitals. We can be one of the few and it is a big market for us. Every year we can save hundred of thousands of patients across the globe by us producing the copper surfaces. The technology involved in making these parts is old and even a man and dog round the corner can metal bash into shape the basins, cups, holders and make a real fortune. Hospitals around the world are looking for solutions and copper surfaces are the long term solutions that do not need disinfectants. Zambia can create a prime to just make these surfaces. If target is 50000 tonnes of copper per year, the revenue can be in the range of US$2 billion to US$8 billion. This is our niche market that will create 4000 to 5000 jobs.
The four areas we have targeted for Zambia to explore will create a minimum of 75000 jobs with revenue in the Bank of Zambia, if assuming a small conservative 50000 tonne per year in every sector with a total 200000 tonnes per year used in value addition firms that have been formed by the government, will bring in minimum of US30 billion per year. South Africa using our copper, zinc and nickel make billions and billions of dollars. Mozambique too has now started using our copper to add value. The latest IMF figures put Mozambique at top of fastest growing manufacturing base south of the equator. The time has come to wake up and see how much we have lost over the years. We are the richest in natural resources in the south of the equator. Other people are using us for their benefit. It is time for the government to think of what primes it needs to create in order to develop the private entrepreneurship that will service the primes and converters.
There will be a one-day workshop during the first week of June and it is being advertised here in The Post. This forum will empower you with the necessary knowledge and know-how to make your business a success. You will be equipped with the tools to move out of recession or start brand new company in copper value addition that will bring prosperity to Zambia. On the marketing side and the technology we will help you. So please register soonest for the workshop. Contact Mr Kenny Kangwa at Squaremark Market Solutions of Ndola on 0955628696 or 0966559450 ( squaremarkzambia@yahoo.com This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ). When registering please indicate your interest so that we can help you with some solutions. If you are interested in other businesses please do not hesitate to ask. We will help you and perhaps take you to your promised land. Come on let us do it for Zambia.
The four government firms each can create up 10000 jobs at different levels making a total of about 40000 jobs in copper alloy industry alone. The government’s primes will employ about 9000 employees and the rest will be in private hands that will be part of the supply chain and converter chain. The revenue for each yearly production of 50000 tonnes of beryllium copper alloy to be conservative is about US$1.75 billion at the low end to US$6 Billion at the top end.
In health care, copper has been recognised as a hygienic material since the dawn of civilisation. Indeed when the first European settlers came to Zambia they were amazed to find that the people around Bwana Mkubwa in Ndola used copper canister and containers for their medical herbs and cleaned tools in copper basins. Research has now been supported by scientific output showing that copper is antimicrobial, that is it inhibits the growth of harmful pathogens-bacteria, moulds, algae, fungi and viruses. The latest research output has even shown evidence of copper’s antimicrobial effect on a range of disease-causing organisms including MRSA, Clostridium difficile, Ecoli, Listeria monocytogenes, Influenza A and Aspergillums Niger.
In Zambia many patients die each year in hospital because they have been infected by a hospital acquired germ. For instance, hospital-acquired infections in England cost about a £1 billion in treating patients who were in the first place admitted to hospital with a completely different disease. About 5000 patients die of complications from infections that they contracted in hospitals.
These hospital-acquired infections are preventable. Replacing frequently touched surfaces with copper and its high copper content alloys such as brass and bronze, which are naturally antimicrobial, could be an important infection control measure and complement other measures such as hand washing, patient screening and isolation, and improve cleaning. Frequently touched surfaces in hospitals which could be made from copper and its alloys are: door handles, push plates, light switches, bed rails, grab rails, intravenous poles, dispensers (alcohol gel, paper towel, soap), dressing trolleys, counter and table tops. Nobody so far has entered this market of using copper in hospitals. We can be one of the few and it is a big market for us. Every year we can save hundred of thousands of patients across the globe by us producing the copper surfaces. The technology involved in making these parts is old and even a man and dog round the corner can metal bash into shape the basins, cups, holders and make a real fortune. Hospitals around the world are looking for solutions and copper surfaces are the long term solutions that do not need disinfectants. Zambia can create a prime to just make these surfaces. If target is 50000 tonnes of copper per year, the revenue can be in the range of US$2 billion to US$8 billion. This is our niche market that will create 4000 to 5000 jobs.
The four areas we have targeted for Zambia to explore will create a minimum of 75000 jobs with revenue in the Bank of Zambia, if assuming a small conservative 50000 tonne per year in every sector with a total 200000 tonnes per year used in value addition firms that have been formed by the government, will bring in minimum of US30 billion per year. South Africa using our copper, zinc and nickel make billions and billions of dollars. Mozambique too has now started using our copper to add value. The latest IMF figures put Mozambique at top of fastest growing manufacturing base south of the equator. The time has come to wake up and see how much we have lost over the years. We are the richest in natural resources in the south of the equator. Other people are using us for their benefit. It is time for the government to think of what primes it needs to create in order to develop the private entrepreneurship that will service the primes and converters.
There will be a one-day workshop during the first week of June and it is being advertised here in The Post. This forum will empower you with the necessary knowledge and know-how to make your business a success. You will be equipped with the tools to move out of recession or start brand new company in copper value addition that will bring prosperity to Zambia. On the marketing side and the technology we will help you. So please register soonest for the workshop.
Contact Mr Kenny Kangwa at Squaremark Market Solutions of Ndola on 0955628696 or 0966559450 ( squaremarkzambia@yahoo.comThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ). When registering please indicate your interest so that we can help you with some solutions. If you are interested in other businesses please do not hesitate to ask. We will help you and perhaps take you to your promised land. Come on let us do it for Zambia.
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COMMENT - It is time that Zambia industrialized, and went beyond exporting raw materials. The money for that, has to come from the taxes on the mines. Manufacturing must be protected, so Zambian manufaturers will not be swamped by foreign corporations, who can take a loss on their sales in Zambia, just to gain market share.
Having said, 10,000 jobs, although much better than the present situation, is not going to make much of a dent in Zambia's 5,000,000 strong workforce. The key still I think is in the 80% of arable land that is not under cultivation, and the 97% of arable land that is not under permanent irrigation. Today, most people are still employed in agriculture, and even if 10,000 jobs were created in industry, that would still be the case. Also, the development of agriculture has many add-on effects. The creation of irrigation works will not only employ many people, it will also create agricultural land that these very same workers can go on to farm, creating jobs (in agriculture) by creating jobs (in works projects). The resulting water management will prevent the annual floods, that create so much loss of life, destruction of property and result in hunger in the affected areas because of failed crops. The truth is that low food prices come from an abundance of food, which is a great way to not only create hundreds of thousands of jobs, but also to leave consumers with more money to spend on other goods. In fact,anything that can be done to lower the cost of living will stimulate the economy indirectly, by stimulating demand.
Maybe there should be a two-tract development plan - one of industrialisation for the cities (mainly the Copperbelt), and one agricultural development, aimed at the rural areas, where most people live.
Labels: CLIVE CHIRWA, COPPER, ECONOMY, INDUSTRIALISATION, WORKSHOPS
posted by MrK @ 2:11 PM
9 Comments:
Mr K
A good response to the letter.
There will always be one industry that will survive any economic problem the world has and that is FOOD.
I think Mr Chirwa has gone off on a dream on part 3 as he is talking about an industry that has not been achieved yet and will need a lot of research to enter.
It's only one product he has painted a picture on so im not trying to say it will not work but using the same principle of "home made" and "exported ready to use" will bring more money to any town the factory or mill is placed.
Which is only good for the people.
I hate to say this but Chirwa & Dambisa may have become Africa's version of the "house negro" please forgive me here, I could not find another way to put this.
Prof Chirwa should take a leaf from Ibrahim ( Founder of Celtel now Zain ), put you money where your mouth is Mr Chirwa. Zambians should not ahve to make you president in order for you to be part of the solution.
in the case of Dambisa Moyo, I agree with Mrk her perspective is utterly wrong.
Bono and other celebrities are not be problem in fact the term blood diamond would not have had any impact without their voice. They have saved African lives and resources from wanton exploitation.
Instead of calling for aid to be cut off Dambisa should devote her efforts and future books on how Africans can increase their institutional capacity to handle aid whether the aid is privately funded or govt to govt aid. The object is to lift as many Africans out of poverty as possible, why would she exclude govt to govt aid?
She should be calling for the exclusion of ill equipped politicians from ever entering any African government, we Africans need every available form of aid right now it is counterproductive to consign masses to life without opportunity.
Prof Lou Ph.D. ( former minister of health) views the cutting of Danish and Swedish aid to Zambia's health sector as a crisis for rural and urban population health because as she stated the Zambian government can not fund the health budget of it's people from local resources there will be no ARVs, maternity health support this constitutes a crisis. Dambisa Moyo should have spent have time at the Danish embassy in Lusaka in helping the Danish embassy find better ways of making sure their funding achieves the intended objectives.
Corruption exists in UK( recent parliament scandal) and US (pork/portage scandal)
we should be looking at ways to curtail corruption in Africa not cutting off aid.
Personally, I am pleased that we have think tanks like Chirwa.
Mostly, I appreciate the overtures from Chirwa on having these workshops and beginning to pervade in the Zambian community with tangible business solutions to help the country. I was beginning to wonder when he’d start doing that, so that is good, now that he is doing it. Nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must be first overcome, so I applaud his move.
Anonimous, you say you “think Mr Chirwa has gone off on a dream on part 3 as he is talking about an industry that has not been achieved yet and will need a lot of research to enter.” First of all, I believe you do not understand the definition of a dream!
For your sake this is the definition "A dream is a nightly summary report based on a thorough review and analysis of the day's input, giving you feedback about specific issues that still need attention. The report generally includes suggestions on how to handle issues."
I would say you are very myopic, and no wonder we have a country performing as it is, because there is more of individuals like you in the country. We need to change that sort of mind set.
Prof Chirwa mentioned having between 4 and 5 more companies like ZAMEFA. He also mentioned four companies that can be formed for making brass, bronze, beryllium copper and cupronickel.
Now, my point and his if I may, is that there is already an established market for the aforementioned and other countries are doing exactly that by buying the raw materials from us.
Professor Chirwa, in part 2, mentioned Zambia needed short, medium and long-term plan to ensure success of the country. What Anonymous is unaware I think is that Zambia will still be there 20 to 100 years from now long after his gone and those product could as well be selling then. That is how countries are run, with a vision in mind... no wonder we do not even have enough electricity back home in the Zed. You just sudenly realise you've no power because of lack of vision.
So Chirwa's plans, I personally think should not warrant a pathetic attack like that. Chirwa is where he is because of foresight like that... He who stops being better stops being good. So I applaud him for that vision of targeting hospitals to supply them with copper products for their use.
There is nothing positive coming from Anonymous, he is sounding like Tetamashimba to me!
What you do, inferring from your comments, speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say, because it is nonsense!
A message to Proff Chirwa...
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principal, stand like a rock, there are a lot of people behind you than you think. Let those lunatics criticize all they can but we know whose making sense.
Though no one can go back and make a brand new start for Zambia, I believe you are one of a few leaders who can help us start from now and make a brand new ending for Zambia.
The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The greater teacher inspires and Prof, we are inspired by you and we’d like to be proud of our country with our heads held high for all to know that we are Zambians.
Am ashamed when I say am from Zambia, because my friends are beginning to talk about the 100 hearses and Mobile hospitals. So pathetic!!!!
Lastly I believe it is our duty as men and women to proceed as though the limits of our ambitions do not exist. So think ahead professor, those detractors will always be there, but their voices of dissent will grow more and more dissonant as many a Zambian people are behind you.
Anonymous, I do not know what you mean by "A good response to the letter. There will always be one industry that will survive any economic problem the world has and that is FOOD." Is it the food like in through cultivation or like corn flakes, sausage, coned beef, Iwisa? What I see as the confusion in many Zambians is in grouping cultivation of crops in the same group with production of jiggies, biscuits, sausages and other packaged stuff. The latter is what Prof. Chirwa is putting across since it has a factor of adding value. Again it is like saying Mopani (the mining company) is in the same group with ZAMEFA (making wires). This is why we have not been doing well in agriculture because we have been thinking that if we put more money there then we would have food security and create jobs. The same goes for thinking that if we invest more more mining (as in extraction) then we would earn a bit more. Prof Chirwa's point is that we have been producing raw materails for a long time but we have not made it economically, so lets add value to the raw materials we've been producing. To do that certainly requires investment in human resource just as you invest in captial projects. So, to shy away from research is rather stone-agish as "I think Mr Chirwa has gone off on a dream on part 3 as he is talking about an industry that has not been achieved yet and will need a lot of research to enter". Compare Zambia and Korea on google's gapminder and see how policies of inaction like yours have landed the country into reverse gear because of not wanting technological adavancement. Korea had to invest in human resource development when we were busy with social welfare through FOOD schemes like fertiliser supprt programme which has not made any impact at all.
Nyangu & Chisomo-
Good intentions never amount to anything in not acted upon, what Prof Chirwa is talking about is not new, check any party manifesto you will find this empty rhetoric. Shimapande for UN diplomat, Nevers Mumba, Dean Mung'omba, BY and HH have all articulated similar dreams. If Prof Chirwa wants to be treated differently he should first demonstrate by starting an enterprise, think tank, micro finance bank or school in Zambia
that will bear results to show his prescriptions have any vitality.
He can quarterback all he likes from his seat in London but that don't mean nothing for any Zambian in Nalolo or Luwingu.
Obama run a community organizing agency that made a real imapct on the south side of Chicago before he was elected as State senator, Prof Chirwa wants peoplein Zambia to believe is word and give him a job with the most privileges and power Zambia. It's crazy to say the least, sure his educated, sure his rich so is HH, BY, Shimapande why should be be treated different by the Zambian voter.
He is not even articulate if you ask me, his speeches may have content but no prose or rhythms no "yes we can". I personally think he would be better off doing something like Ibrahim start on African business or a think tank that will lobby for good governance in Zambia.
Anonymous #2
Kabwe,Zambia
Hi,
Lots of reactions, and they are all appreciated.
Prof. Chirwa could have added that copper is used in sprays to limit root growth in potted plants and trees.
Wouldn't it be nice to have a President who would understand industrialisation first hand, who was not another lawyer, or former MMD party figure?
I disagree that Prof. Chirwa should first do another job. He has been a professor of engineering, and that should qualify him more as the leader of a developing nation than any other profession would. Barack Obama's work as community organiser was excellent, but not really the most relevant qualification for being president - having a very high IQ, being editor of the Harvard Law Review and teaching constitutional law at the University of Chicago are also qualifiers. In fact it is the collective of his experiences that made him the best candidate in the 2008 elections.
Professor Chirwa's achievement will be to make it through the MMD's selection process, and fight all the corrupt deals that are in place and keep the MMD voting for their old reliables. Even now, there is a movement afoot to get Rupiah Banda re-elected in 2011.
But whoever gets into power, it is important that they let go of chasing FDI around the globe, roll up their sleaves and start getting busy at home, which is where all the opportunities are.
At 2:24 PM , AnonymousI am not against industrialisation at all. Zambia should at least export finished copper goods, and other goods made from local resources. I just think that securing the food supply may prove critical in the next few years. A house is build on a solid foundation, and for an economy, that is agriculture and industry. Sectors that produce real goods, as opposed to service sectors like tourism and finance. Those goods will keep their value, even as the currency does not, and that is why it is important to have a solid basis for the national economy. And when the going gets tough, food is the ultimate commodity, even more so than copper products. I just think the global economy can get very rough in the next few years, although I hope and pray that it will not.
Anonymous,
My response to you is three pronged in relation to the comments you’ve made;
1. “If Prof Chirwa wants to be treated differently he should first demonstrate by starting an enterprise, think tank, micro finance bank or school in Zambia”
Whilst that is commendable, I believe the professor has already instituted in his own version, a workshop in which he’s beginning to devise that he wrote about in part three I think. So deducing from that, there should be more coming.
2. “It's crazy to say the least, sure his educated, sure his rich so is HH, BY, Shimapande why should he be treated different by the Zambian voter.”
I believe individuals have a uniqueness of individuality. In my opinion, I think Chirwa is one of the leaders amongst the ones you’ve cited to be extremely well vested with a vantage point to immeasurably understand the manufacturing base that would create employment, add value to our raw materials and pull Zambia out of poverty. The guys you have mentioned are ok, but incomparable to Chirwa on this particular manufacturing vantage point the professor has. Because of this particular brilliant quality he possesses, including contact base abroad, I believe tremendously qualifies him to be a force to reckon with for a run on the presidency.
3. “He is not even articulate if you ask me, his speeches may have content but no prose or rhythms no "yes we can". I personally think he would be better off doing something like Ibrahim start on African business or a think tank that will lobby for good governance in Zambia.”
However, my comment to your assertion is this,
Remember how Chiluba was articulate, alas, crass and lucked any substance to develop the country?
Mwanawasa wasn’t exactly the “yes we can type now was he? But look at what he did, brought inflation from double digits to single digits, fought corruption, and put up the most prudent monetary and fiscal policies the country has ever seen. All this was not engendered by the “yes we can” oratory now was it?
I believe Prof, has substance, which is what we need to get out of this impasse Zambia is undergoing. He is oratorical enough to help us, besides oratory is not what Zambia needs right now, we need his brains, his IQ, we need somebody outside the Lusaka beltway to bring in new ideas.
Some politicians are actually quaking in their boots right now because if he gets the position, he is not beholden to anybody and capable to wage the fight against corruption more than LPM.
So the Professor will face resistance of his lifetime on this one, because these guys know that they’ll be finished.
Anonymous, I think you are a child. And most probably the most myopic individual I’ve met on cyberspace. And for that, I’ll not respond any further to comments from you because I can deduce you just do not like the man who wants to help you.
I think you are missing the thrust of my point, it is NOT that I think Prof Chirwa is not qualified nor should he not run but rather why does he feel it is necessary to hold the title of Zambian President in order to make a difference in Zambia's political or national development?
would his participation at any other level or capacity be insignificant?
What credibility doe he have with the Zambian vote to be elected President in 2011?
I am merely playing the devil's advocate , not that am the devil, he can run and campaign from London if that's what he thinks will work for him.
Am saying he needs to prove himself with the Zambian people, has he done any polling?
Does anyone know how he currently ranks against Sata, HH or the incumbant RB?
I take exception to the label on a "child", I have been around long enough to have heard the like of Prof Shimapande who returned from the US after working abroad for over 20 years, He blew his UN pension on Presidential campaign that got him less than 1% of the electoral vote?
His campaign pledges were no less noble than what Prof Chirwa is now espousing?
The road to hell is paved with good intentions why should give me cpmfort that Prof Chirwa once elected to State house will be immune from the corrupting power of the Zambian Presidency.
All am saying is there are many eminent academicians that have made substantial contributions to their countries national development without seeking the title of President, given what has so far happened in the MMD i.e the adoption of RB in 7 provinces as the MMD candidate for 2011, I do not see any viable pathway for Prof Chirwa and if he can not see the reality unfolding before our eyes, i wonder if his mindset is rooted in reality that is the basis on which I call for him to test the ground in not only thru talking shops but by trying out something tangible.
Chiluba was a trade unionist that is how he gained popularity, he fought miners under MUZ for years people had something tangible to identify him by, Mwanawasa was a popular lawyer who held win a lot of political cases that is how yhe Zambians identified him, super K was a freedom fight that is how Zambians remember him and Obama was a community organizer that is how Americans identify with him. How does Zambians identify Prof Chirwa?
Anonymous #2
Kabwe, Zambia
Anonymous #2
Kabwe, Zambia
5:09 PM
I think you are missing the thrust of my point, it is NOT that I think Prof Chirwa is not qualified nor should he not run but rather why does he feel it is necessary to hold the title of Zambian President in order to make a difference in Zambia's political or national development?
One reason would be because of the level of centralisation of power. The president can set a budget, and as stated in the constitution, can create and dissolve ministries.
Frankly only the President and (collectively) Parliament can do something about the huge bureaucracy Zambia has, restructure government, or create and negotiate a national industrialisation plan or create agrarian reform.
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