Maravi

(WIKILEAKS CABLE) Sept 2000 - ZANU-PF REPORTEDLY INTERESTED IN DEAL WITH MDC

EO 12958 DECL: 09/21/10
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF REPORTEDLY INTERESTED IN DEAL WITH MDC THAT INVOLVES MUGABE’S DEPARTURE
CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
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¶1. (C) ACCORDING TO A SENIOR MDC ADVISOR, THE OPPOSITION PARTY HAS RECEIVED ADDITIONAL FEELERS FROM ZANU-PF ABOUT MAKING A DEAL THAT INVOLVES PRESIDENT MUGABE’S DEPARTURE FROM OFFICE. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS REPORTEDLY WILLING TO AGREE TO A GRACEFUL EXIT FOR MUGABE BECAUSE IT IS IN ZIMBABWE’S NATIONAL INTEREST. THE MDC ADVISOR SAID KOFI ANNAN RECENTLY OFFERED MUGABE A PACKAGE TO STEP DOWN, WHICH HE DECLINED, AND THAT A SHADY ZIMBABWEAN BUSINESSMAN HAS TOLD ZANU-PF HE IS WILLING TO FINANCE A “RETIREMENT PACKAGE” FOR THE PRESIDENT. MEANWHILE, XXXXXXXXXXXX HAS BEEN ASKED BY THE MDC TO ORGANIZE A PRIVATE SECTOR INITIATIVE FOCUSED ON FORGING AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ON A WAY OUT OF ZIMBABWE’S CURRENT MESS. END SUMMARY.

ZANU-PF SEES WRITING ON WALL, WANTS A DEAL
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¶2. (C) IN A SEPTEMBER 26 CALL ON DCM AND POLOFF, XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID THE BUSINESS INTERESTS OF SENIOR ZANU-PF MEMBERS ARE BEING BADLY DAMAGED BY THE CURRENT ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL SITUATION. THEY BLAME PRESIDENT MUGABE AND ARE DETERMINED TO FIND A WAY TO EASE HIM OUT IN A DIGNIFIED WAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THEY REALIZE CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 05461 01 OF 02 271458Z THAT THE MDC IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE RURAL AREAS -- TWO RECENT RALLIES BY MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI ATTRACTED THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AND RAISED FUNDS FOR THE PARTY -- AND SEE THEIR LOSS OF POWER AS INEVITABLE. THEY HAVE BEGUN TO TALK SERIOUSLY TO THE MDC ABOUT MAKING A DEAL. ALTHOUGH HE IS NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT IT, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAS AGREED THAT IT IS IN ZIMBABWE’S BEST INTERESTS FOR THE MDC TO DO ALL IT CAN TO SECURE A GRACEFUL EXIT STRATEGY THAT PRESERVES SOMEWHAT OF A POSITIVE LEGACY FOR MUGABE. OTHERWISE, THE PRESIDENT WOULD HAVE LITTLE INCENTIVE TO GO.

ENCOURAGING MUGABE TO STEP DOWN
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¶3. (C) THE BOARD OF LEVER BROTHERS INFORMED THE MDC, XXXXXXXXXXXX REPORTED, THAT KOFI ANNAN, IN THE RECENT MEETING IN NEW YORK DURING THE MILLENIUM SUMMIT, OFFERED MUGABE A DEAL TO STEP DOWN. ALTHOUGH XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID THE MDC WAS NOT PRIVY TO THE DETAILS, HE SURMISED THAT ANNAN’S SUPPOSED DEAL PROBABLY INCLUDED PROVISION OF SAFEHAVEN AND A FINANCIAL PACKAGE FROM LIBYAN PRESIDENT QADHAFI. THE OPPOSITION PARTY HEARD THAT MUGABE TURNED DOWN THE OFFER THE FOLLOWING DAY, AFTER DISCUSSING IT WITH THE FIRST LADY. ANNAN, XXXXXXXXXXXX CONTINUED, IS NOT THE ONLY ONE TRYING TO FACILITATE MUGABE’S DEPARTURE. XXXXXXXXXXXX INFORMED XXXXXXXXXXXX THAT XXXXXXXXXXXX A SHADY WHITE ZIMBABWEAN BUSINESSMAN, HAD TOLD ZANU-PF HE WOULD PROVIDE A FINANCIAL “RETIREMENT” PACKAGE FOR MUGABE. XXXXXXXXXXXX DID NOT KNOW WHETHER XXXXXXXXXXXX HAD SUFFICIENT RESOURCES TO MAKE SUCH A PACKAGE ATTRACTIVE ENOUGH, BUT HE CLAIMED THAT XXXXXXXXXXXX WORKED FOR MI6 AND COULD BE A CHANNEL FOR THE BRITISH TO PROVIDE FUNDS TO SWEETEN THE DEAL. (COMMENT: THE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION HERE SCOFFED AT THE VERY IDEA. END COMMENT.)

¶4. (C) THE MDC, ACCORDING TO XXXXXXXXXXXX, BELIEVED THAT THE BEST WAY TO PROCEED WAS FOR AN INDEPENDENT BODY -- PREFERABLY MEMBERS OF THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY NOT AFFILIATED WITH A PARTICULAR POLITICAL PARTY -- TO WORK WITH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC TO FORGE A MUTUALLY AGREEABLE WAY OUT OF ZIMBABWE’S CURRENT MESS. THE MDC HAS APPROACHED XXXXXXXXXXXX ABOUT LEADING SUCH AN EFFORT.

PRIVATE SECTOR AS MIDDLEMAN
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¶5. (C) SHORTLY AFTER OUR DISCUSSION WITH XXXXXXXXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXXXX CALLED ON THE DCM AND POLOFF. XXXXXXXXXXXX NOTED THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY WAS HEADED FOR DISASTER, AND HE WAS EXPLORING HOW KEY MEMBERS OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR HERE COULD PREVENT A POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TRAINWRECK. HE INSISTED THAT HE HAD NO POLITICAL AFFILIATION, AND THEREFORE HAS A CERTAIN CREDIBILITY WITH BOTH MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES. THE CHALLENGE, XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID, IS CONVINCING ZANU-PF AND THE MDC, WHO MISTRUST EACH OTHER IMMENSELY, TO SIT IN A ROOM TOGETHER AND AGREE ON A WAY FORWARD.

¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID HE HAS HEARD HINTS THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE IS WILLING TO STEP DOWN UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS. THAT WOULD BE REMARKABLE, THE DCM POINTED OUT, AS A DECISION NOT TO STAND FOR PRESIDENT IN 2002 WOULD MAKE MUGABE A LAME DUCK AND LIKELY WOULD FURTHER UNDERMINE HIS ABILITY TO GOVERN EFFECTIVELY. THAT SCENARIO, XXXXXXXXXXXX REPLIED, ASSUMES THAT MUGABE WOULD SERVE OUT THE REMAINDER OF HIS TERM. THE PRESIDENT, HE HAS BEEN TOLD, WOULD BE WILLING TO STAND DOWN NOW IF HE IS CONVINCED THAT HIS LAND REDISTRIBUTION PLAN IS ON TRACK. AMNESTY WOULD LIKELY BE ANOTHER CONDITION, XXXXXXXXXXXX ADDED.

¶7. (C) THERE IS A GROWING REALIZATION IN ZANU-PF, XXXXXXXXXXXX INSISTED, THAT THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE ECONOMY WILL INEVITABLY HAND THE COUNTRY ON A SILVER PLATTER TO THE MDC. IN ORDER TO GAIN POWER, THE MDC MERELY HAS TO WAIT. ZANU-PF, THEREFORE, IS PRIMED TO MAKE A DEAL. ASKED WHAT THE CATALYST WAS FOR SUCH A DEAL, XXXXXXXXXXXX SAID ONE POSSIBILITY IS A CONFERENCE, ORGANIZED BY KEY MEMBERS OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR, IN WHICH AN INTERNATIONALLY RESPECTED FIGURE SEEN AS IMPARTIAL BY BOTH SIDES WOULD ATTEMPT TO FORGE AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC, PRIMARILY ON LAND BUT ALSO ON OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES. SUCH A CONFERENCE WOULD ALSO ADDRESS HOW COUNTRIES SUCH AS CHILE AND ARGENTINA MADE THE TRANSITION TO MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY AND DEALT WITH THE QUESTION OF AMNESTY. ASKED HOW THE UNITED STATES COULD HELP, XXXXXXXXXXXX REPLIED THAT AN HONEST BROKER WAS NEEDED TO CONVINCE ZANU-PF TO PARTICIPATE AND TO UNDERWRITE THE COSTS OF WHATEVER AGREEMENT EMERGED. THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT, HE CLAIMED, HAS 36 MILLION POUNDS AVAILABLE FOR LAND REFORM IN ZIMBABWE, BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY TOO ANTAGONISTIC TO PLAY AN HONEST BROKER ROLE. THE AMERICANS, THOUGH, PROBABLY WOULD BE ACCEPTABLE.

¶8. (C) WOULDN’T PRESIDENT MUGABE HAVE TO BE IN THE LOOP ON SUCH AN INITIATIVE, THE DCM ASKED? ABSOLUTELY, XXXXXXXXXXXX REPLIED. THEIR EFFORT WOULD BE DESCRIBED TO THE PRESIDENT AS A NON-PARTISAN PRIVATE SECTOR INITIATIVE INTENDED TO REACH AGREEMENT ON A LAND REFORM PROGRAM ACCEPTABLE TO ALL THE MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS, THEREBY RESTORING ZIMBABWE’S CREDIBILITY IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. HE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A CARROT FOR MUGABE TO ENDORSE OR PARTICIPATE IN SUCH AN EFFORT. ASKED WHETHER HE MEANT A FINANCIAL PAYOFF, XXXXXXXXXXXX DEMURRED, ONLY INTIMATING THAT THAT ISSUE WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED.

COMMENT
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¶9. (C) MANY MEMBERS OF ZANU-PF ARE INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE IS A SERIOUS LIABILITY. A MEMBER OF ZANU-PF’S POLITBURO RECENTLY TOLD THE INDEPENDENT “FINANCIAL GAZETTE” THAT THE PARTY HAD AGREED THAT MUGABE SHOULD NOT RUN FOR REELECTION, BUT IT HAD NOT YET SETTLED ON A CONSENSUS CANDIDATE. AS THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE, ZANU-PF OFFICIALS REALIZE THAT MUGABE’S CONTINUATION IN POWER WILL LEAD INEVITABLY TO THE ELECTION OF AN MDC PRESIDENT IN 2002. IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME. THEY ARE UNDERSTANDABLY SEARCHING FOR A WAY TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM PROSECUTION AND THEIR ECONOMIC ASSETS FROM SEIZURE OR CONTINUED DETERIORATION. WE ARE NOT SURPRISED, THEREFORE, BY THE RULING PARTY’S BACK-CHANNEL APPROACHES TO THE MDC ABOUT REACHING A DEAL, WHICH WE BELIEVE ARE PROBABLY GENUINE. THE CRITICAL QUESTION IS HOW MUGABE WILL REACT IF HE CATCHES WIND OF IT.

¶10. (C) WE ARE INTRIGUED BY XXXXXXXXXXXX’S EFFORT. HIS THINKING ABOUT HOW TO BROKER SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT IS CLEARLY IN THE INCIPIENT STAGES AND, TO BE SUCCESSFUL, HE MUST FIRST OVERCOME SERIOUS MISTRUST ON BOTH SIDES. ALTHOUGH THE CONFERENCE HE ENVISIONS WOULD, ON THE SURFACE, FOCUS ON REACHING AN AGREEMENT ON LAND, ITS REAL OBJECTIVE WOULD BE TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS OF MUGABE’S DEPARTURE FROM OFFICE. XXXXXXXXXXXX CLEARLY HAS MUCH GROUNDWORK TO DO. THE CLOCK IS TICKING, AS ZANU-PF MAY DISCUSS THE SUCCESSION ISSUE AT ITS EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS LATER THIS YEAR.

MCDONALD

Labels: LAND REFORM, MDC, WIKILEAKS CABLES

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