Friday, October 07, 2011

(HERALD) ANC: Living the SA dream?

ANC: Living the SA dream?
Friday, 07 October 2011 00:00
by Udo W Froese

The writer of the "TIMES" article on current internal politics and the ANC seems confused. He makes out as if there is a Paul Mashathile and a Tokyo Sexwale camp, in other words, two groups within the ruling ANC with two different leaders opposing incumbent ANC and South African president Jacob Zuma, backing the incumbent deputy president, Kgalema Motlanthe. However, Motlanthe seems reluctant, to possibly stand for president. It is therefore highly unlikely that Motlanthe will stand for president of (i) the ANC and (ii) South Africa, when the incumbent president is expected to stand for a second term of office.

There is actually only one camp at the moment that opposes Jacob Zuma and his support base, according to various public reports. That competing camp, includes Human Settlement (Housing) Minister and ANC NEC member Tokyo Sexwale; ANC NEC member and Minister of Culture Paul Mashathile, together with all the other known ones - ANC Treasurer, among the top six of the ANC, Mathews Phosa; former ANCYL President and current Minister for Sport, Fikile Mbalula; of late even the Minister of Defence and ANC NEC member, Lindiwe Sisulu; current ANCYL President Julius Malema and his Youth League executive; former Finance Minister and Minister in the Presidency Trevor Manuel and various ANC provinces and branches and their leaders.

They include the ANC led provinces of Polokwane, the Northern Cape, possibly Mpumalanga and the most industrious province of Gauteng. Their ANC leaders seem to be on the side of the above-mentioned ANC politicians. Respected senior ANC stalwart Winnie Mandela showed her sympathy when she supported ANCYL president Julius Malema during his court trials. She again stood by Malema during her speech, when she accepted the "Ubuntu Award" for her life long services of the ANC. South Africa's media reported her support widely.

It is also observed that ANC NEC and current Minister of Justice, Jeff Radebe, could possibly jump ship, if the aforementioned strategies become a reality. It would make sense then, that the business family, the Motsepes, would throw their weight behind Radebe.

The good minister is married to a Motsepe - Bridgette Motsepe-Radebe, who owns a mining company, "Makau Mining", with platinum mining interests in Zimbabwe and South Africa. It is learnt that one of the guiding forces behind the scenes seems to be former re-called president Thabo Mbeki. Is he focusing on a come back? Thabo Mbeki would most likely not stand any chance in this South Africa.

His brother, Moeletsi Mbeki, is active as a political commentator. Giving public talks daily and being quoted in the local media, Moeletsi Mbeki claims many things, usually in favour of the opposing side of

President Jacob Zuma. He also stated before the Polokwane summit in December 2008 that his brother, Thabo Mbeki would get a third term in office. That clearly did not happen.

It would seem that additional strategic efforts hope to bring Cope, a group of former senior ANC members, who split from the ruling party immediately after the summit of Polokwane in December 2008, on board. This is the observation of senior ANC NEC members.

Would there be more disgruntled members from the ANC Alliance to join? Do the strategic planners include the DA, IFP, the new Zulu party that split from Inkatha, the NFP and a host of NGOs? Would political leaders from the PAC, AZAPO and others from the former BCM join later too?

What about more political minorities such as the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) and their NGOs, AfriForum the Transvaal Agricultural Union, (TAU) possibly throwing their weight behind that strategic move?

A host of BEE "businessmen and women", such as Mzi Kumalo, Bulelani Ngcuka and Saki Macizoma and others, that came in with Thabo Mbeki, could re-surface. Would the Afrikaaner Brotherhood (AB) and its Stellenbosch business and academic power groups as well as their tentacles throughout society play a quiet role to look after their interests?

Meanwhile, Bishop Desmond Tutu entered the political fray yet again, using the public media platform to attack the government under president Jacob Zuma, announcing that he would pray for the defeat of the ANC led government. Viciously, Desmond Tutu spew out that the colonial-apartheid structure was a better arrangement. He also announced that he would pray for the downfall of the ruling ANC and president Zuma.

His tirade follows the withdrawal of the Dalai Lama's visa application, as the Ministry of International Affairs did not comment on whether or not the Dalai Lama would be allowed to travel to South Africa to attend Tutu's 80th birthday bash. Nobel Peace Prize laureate and "Christian", bishop Tutu also warned the ANC, that they would go the same way as the deposed governments of Egypt and Libya. The bishop issued a direct call for civil unrest in South Africa. The producer of one of the private radio talk shows called Desmond Tutu during a talk show with the Minister of Human Settlement (Housing), Tokyo Sexwale. Tutu stopped short of endorsing the hopeful future deputy president.

The bishop always had a political agenda. Small wonder, he was very close to the African-American-Institute (AAI) in the USA under diamond merchant Maurice Tempelsman and the late Frank Ferrari.
The South African Bishop's aforementioned tirade from the media platform reminds this writer of the Bishop of Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, Pius Ncube. His public prayers for the death of President Mugabe had made him a hero in the Christian civilised international West. But, eventually President Mugabe had to pray for the forgiveness of Ncube's sins, when the poor Christian bishop was shown in the act, committing adultery on camera with ten married women from his congregation. That had also made front-page news a few years ago.

Interesting to note that all of South African print and electronic media carried Tutu's hysterical attacks on the ruling ANC, its president and the government. It became clear that it was all well co-ordinated. Bishop Tutu must perceive himself as quite divine, above all democratic and souvereign government structures, a law unto Himself only. It seems that the competing camp within the ANC under among others, minister

Sexwale, could have another route left, if it cannot sink president Zuma and his support base from inside the ANC. It could form a formidable opposition, after having initiated a palace revolution from within, split the ANC and then break away from what is left.
Such strategy could be an alternative for 2013, or later for 2017. In its strategic planning that group wants to take the ANC name along to possibly confuse the majority of the voters and in that way, get the majority of the vote. If the outlined strategies would indeed be successful, the ANC would be destroyed.

* Udo W Froese is an analyst and columnist, based in Johannesburg, South Africa.



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