Thursday, July 28, 2016

Stratfor on President Mugabe, Minister Mnangagwa, De Beers and Diamonds

COMMENT - Wikileaks shows the cluelessness of Stratfor's understanding of the Zimbabwean situation, as well as De Beers working in Zimbabwe against US policy. They admit sanctioning entire industries and many companies, in order to shape what comes after Mugabe - shape the Zimbabwean political scene. Not very democratic. According to Mark Schroeder of Stratfor:

To me this sanction is not about US businesses there (not much), but about
sanctions on Zimbabwean elite involved in the diamonds there to shape what
succeeds Mugabe
.

In other words, they think they are using sanctions to shape the Zimbabwean political scene. - MrK

Re: [Africa] ZIMBABWE/US/MINING - US blacklists Zimbabwean diamond companies

Released on 2013-02-26 00:00 GMT
Email-ID 5042006
Date 2011-12-13 20:49:49
From mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
To africa@stratfor.com
Re: [Africa] ZIMBABWE/US/MINING - US blacklists Zimbabwean diamond
companies

Maranga is good to make cash for some ZANU-PF elite. It is seen as under the control of the securocrats faction that involved the defense minister. The Mujurus, on the other hand, were seen as behind the River Ranch diamond area in the south, close to the border with South Africa.

To me this sanction is not about US businesses there (not much), but about sanctions on Zimbabwean elite involved in the diamonds there to shape what succeeds Mugabe. Mnangagwa and a host of other securocrats are facing this sanction. So the calculation among the securocrats has to be, if they go forward with Mnangagwa as their candidate, he is already under US-led international sanction, and the country will not be normalized. The US is likely to increase their rhetoric if Mnangagwa goes on to succeed Mugabe -- it's one thing to let Mugabe die out (the international community can do little about Mugabe), but they will not work with another securocrat.

Mnangagwa succeeding Mugabe will likely trigger renewed focus on sanctions and ZANU-PF might not have what it takes to withstand another 5 years of that.

So that's why they might need to focus on finding a successor who is not
under sanction but who can provide them security and financial guarantees,
in return for yielding power and not ending up in The Hague.


On 12/13/11 12:14 PM, Adelaide Schwartz wrote:

How important are the Marange/Chiadzwa mines for a ZANU-PF campaign? Is
this the principal operation from which Mugabe and co. receive cash for
political buy offs?

If this is a political move by the US as you raise below then I can't
help but think it is poorly calculated. What US businesses are still
there after repeated sanctions?
I agree that Mnangawa seems to be in the
top position for a "passed down win."


imo, real pull is US getting De Beers operators out (I don't think De
Beers has re-entered on their own but I would need to confirm since SA
changed the Kimb Process a few months ago)

On 12/13/11 9:11 AM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

here's an interesting development following the conclusion of the
ZANU-PF congress, though the date of the move is not clear. It would
mean that beneficiaries of Marange diamonds will not get US
cooperation-- and rather, will face sanction.
It is believed that the
Mnangagwa faction (the securocrats) benefits from the Marange
diamonds.
Back to our conversation on the future Zimbabwean election,
it would thus be very difficult for Mnangagwa to secure the election,
as he will face considerable international sanction/pressure against
him.
Remember that the rival ZANU-PF faction led by Joyce Mujuru is
effectively knocked out of the running following the death by
mysterious fire of her husband, Solomon Mujuru.

On the other hand, the MDC is still in a weak position and no way
ZANU-PF will just give up and let them win. It thus opens the door for
some compromise accommodation, though surely with some hard bargaining
to be done.

On 12/12/11 11:48 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

US blacklists Zimbabwean diamond companies

Text of report by South African privately-owned, established daily
newspaper The Star on 12 December

[Report by Peta Thornycroft, Independent Foreign Service: "US
Blacklists Zim Diamonds"]

HARARE: The US has blacklisted several diamond companies that are
extracting rough stones from controversial diamond fields in eastern
Zimbabwe.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control has blacklisted companies owned
by a state mining company and a private limited company which has
been financially backed by a South African investor.

Human rights organizations and investigators were infuriated when
the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme recently cleared the
diamonds for export from Zimbabwe
.

But it will now become impossible for any US citizen -and the EU is
likely to follow -to buy any stones from or via any of the
companies, all based in Zimbabwe.


The stones sold in Zimbabwe are mostly bought by buyers in Asia that
don't have any trade restrictions.


Mining licences in the diamond fields have been issued to Mbar
Diamonds (Mbada)
, a Zimbabwean company backed by a Mauritian company
and funded by South African scrap dealer New Reclamation
, in which
Old Mutual has a 5.6 per cent share.

South African David Kassel is the CEO of New Reclamation, and has
been involved closely in helping set up the diamond mine run by
Mbada.

The companies placed on the blacklist are: Marange Resources
(Private) Limited (aka Block Wood Mining, aka Marange Resources, aka
Mmarange Resources Ltd) MMCZ Building, 90 Mutare Road, Harare,
Zimbabwe (Box 4101, Harare); Zimbabwe Mbada Diamonds (Private)
Limited (aka CONDURANGA, aka Mbada, aka Mbada Diamond Mining, aka
Mbada Diamonds), New Office Park, Block C, Sam Levy's Village,
Borrowdale, Harare.


Source: The Star, Johannesburg, in English 12 Dec 11 p 5

BBC Mon AF1 AFEausaf 121211 jo


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