MDC-T losing support, Zanu-PF gaining: Freedom House
This article was written by Our reporter
on 22 August, at 18 : 26 PM
A NEW poll by the United State’s Freedom House shows that support for the Movement for Democratic Change party led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai has been fading from 2010.
Freedom House is a non-governmental organisation that “supports democratic change, monitors freedom, and advocates for democracy and human rights around the world,” according to its website.
The same poll shows Zanu-PF’s popularity as rising by 14 percentage points during the same period from 17 percent to 31 percent.
The MDC went down 18 percentage points from 38 percent to 20 percent. 47 percent of the people surveyed did not state their preference.
The results were released Wednesday by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), sponsored by Freedom House.
The poll also showed President Robert Mugabe as the favorite on 31 percent, up from 12 percent in 2009.
Prime Minister Tsvangirai was on 19 percent, down from 55 percent in 2009.
The MDC factions led by Professor Welshman Ncube and Professor Arthur Mutambara was not mentioned in the poll. Combined, they are still the third party, judging from the poll.
Zimbabwe is set to go to the polls at the end of this year or early next year.
The latest poll results by Freedom House will be a blow to the MDC-T party which dismissed such other poll last year, showing that it was losing support amongst Zimbabweans.
In 2011, the NGO said the support for the MDC-T had dropped sharply from 55 percent to 38 percent – showing a 17 percent decline.
Then MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa, dismissed the survey saying it could not be deemed conclusive arguing “there were many people who did not express their views freely in the exercise”.
This year, Freedom House compiled the figures from a “nationally” representative sample of 2 000 adult Zimbabweans in all the 10 provinces.
Labels: MDC, NELSON CHAMISA, POLLING, ZANU-PF
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Poll inadquances have exposed gaps in Constitution - ZCID
By Kombe Chimpinde
Wed 28 Sep. 2011, 13:58 CAT
Inadequacies witnessed during the polls have exposed the many serious gaps in the existing Republican Constitution, according to ZCID. And ZCID has called on all Zambians and political parties against political retribution.
Zambia Centre for Inter Party Dialogue (ZCID) executive director Chomba Chella told journalists that the many gaps had continued to render the country's electoral process weak and prone to suspicion.
"A good electoral process should be one that is clearly embedded in the law in such a way that it makes electoral contest smooth and predictable," Chella said.
He said there was need for an electoral process guided by clear constitutional principles that make participants comfortable.
Chella noted that for this to be done, there was need to ensure laws that would guide the duration of the announcement of elections; ensure low cases of electoral violence; prevent the marked high level of intimidation among the electorate; and the unprofessional conduct by the police service.
"Despite the massive support the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) received from government and cooperating partners, the election management body's performance was below par compared to 2008. For instance, in a number of polling districts, materials arrived late, thereby delaying the voting process, causing unnecessary anxiety and in some cases violence. Some electoral commission officers were also clearly partisan," he said.
And Chella said that ZCID had received numerous cases of political retribution.
Chella said that political retribution must not be allowed to continue because it took away from the hard reputation of Zambia as a democratic nation.
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Labels: POLLING, ZCID
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Poll gives sata, pf 55% victory
By Misheck Wangwe
Tue 13 Sep. 2011, 14:00 CAT
A lATEST opinion poll conducted by a group of Zambian lecturers in conjunction with Canada's Bradford University has revealed that Michael Sata's Patriotic Front (PF) will win this year's elections by 55 per cent.
And the opinion poll has also revealed that PF will win 87 parliamentary seats, MMD 34, UPND 22 and the rest to be shared by weaker political parties and independent candidates.
According to the opinion poll which was released by a group of 20 Zambian university lecturers headed by John Chishimba together with their counterparts in Canada at Bradford University, Sata is the most popular candidate and possible presidential winner of the September 20 elections.
Chishimba, who retired as purchasing and supplies manager from the Copperbelt University (CBU) and is now doing part-time lecturing, said Sata would get 2,750,000 out of the 5,053,366 total number of registered voters.
Chishimba, who is also a procurement consultant, said the predicted poll results from province to province indicated that PF would win the highest number of votes on the Copperbelt with more than 576,000, followed by Lusaka where Sata would win with 531,000 votes.
Chishimba said in Northern Province, Sata would get 400,000 votes, 287,000 in Luapula and 286,000 in Western Province. He said the opinion poll further showed that Sata would get 230,000 votes in Southern Province, 148,000 in North-Western and 181, 000 in Eastern Province.
Chishimba said in Central Province, Sata would get 108,000 votes.
He said the data for the study of the opinion poll were collected from the 150 constituencies in the country. He said the total population was 300,000 of 2,000 per constituency and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) operating in every area were used to collect data.
Chishimba said voters aged between 18 to 35 years accounted for 55 per cent, while those above 35 accounted for 45 per cent.
He said in terms of data collection methods, face-to-face interviews and questionnaires were used in obtaining information. For those who could not write and read, face-to-face interviews were used.
Chishimba said in the management of questionnaires, the likert scale was used and ranged from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most significant response.
He said a scale of 2 and 1 was used to rank two variable responses with two being the most significant except for the service of differentiating the age groups and education obtained by the respondents.
"Michael Sata will win the elections because he has become more popular among young voters than any of the presidential candidates, especially between the ages 19 and 35 years old countrywide. This age group accounts for 55.6 per cent of the total registered voters and those above 35 years accounted to 45 per cent," Chishimba said.
He said the conviction of the electorate that prefer Sata was that he would bring order and reduce the high levels of corruption in the country once he takes over power.
Chishimba said the opinion poll had further predicted that PF would win 87 parliamentary seats out of the 150 constituencies, MMD would get 34, UPND 22 while independent candidates and unpopular opposition parties would compete for few seats.
Chishimba said it was likely that the MMD would not win any seat on the Copperbelt as the PF had become more popular than ever before and would scoop 21 seats out of the 22 seats.
He said only one parliamentary seat on the Copperbelt, which is Lufwanyama, was likely to go to the opposition UPND.
"The PF is much stronger in the Lambaland now and they have taken over the seats that had MMD parliamentarians such as Mpongwe, Masaiti and Kafulafuta.
These seats have gone to PF leaving the MMD with no seat on the Copperbelt," Chishimba said.
He said in Northern Province, the PF would get 17 seats while the MMD would manage three seats and one seat was likely to go to an independent candidate.
He said the findings further revealed that in Lusaka, out of 12 seats the PF would get 11 while the MMD would get one seat. The opinion poll further indicated that in Luapula Province, PF would win 13 seats out of the 14 while the MMD would manage to get one seat.
Chishimba said in Southern Province, the UPND would lead at parliamentary level with 14 seats, the MMD would manage to get three and PF two seats.
He said in Western Province the PF would be on top with 10 seats, MMD three, while Charles Milupi's Alliance for Democracy and Development (ADD) would get one seat and an independent candidate would manage to get one seat.
Chishimba said in Eastern Province the MMD would lead with 14 seats out of the total number of 19 constituencies, with the PF getting five seats.
He said in North Western Province, out of the total 12 parliamentary seats, it was likely that the UPND would get 6 seats, the PF would be second with 4 and the MMD would manage two seats.
Chishimba said the MMD was likely to lead in Central Province with seven seats, followed by PF with four and UPND managing three seats.
The 20 Zambian lecturers led by Chishimba are from CBU, UNZA and Evelyn Hone College. They conducted the poll from June 1 to September 6, before releasing results on September 10.
Labels: JOHN CHISHIMBA, PF, POLLING
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Election monitoring
By The Post
Thu 04 Mar. 2010, 04:00 CAT
GOOD elections require the intelligent and responsible participation of all voters.
To have peaceful, free and fair elections, certain conditions have to prevail in our country and in our hearts. There ought to be a conducive atmosphere. All the major players, including the voters themselves, have to agree on the conditions under which elections would be held.
The contestants and their supporters have to conduct themselves in a manner that does not put others at an unfair disadvantage. There ought to be transparency in the organisation of elections. Constructive dialogue should be encouraged at all times on key electoral issues, such as the constitution, the electoral Act and voter registration. All political parties should have fair access to publicly owned media, and the media have a duty to report political campaigns fairly and accurately.
In the light of these necessary conditions, we are delighted to learn that the Catholic Church has launched Caritas Zambia 2011 election strategy that will enable it, for the first time, to take part in the monitoring of elections in our country.
Launching this election strategy, Zambia Episcopal Conference secretary general Fr Joe Komakoma explained that the role of the church in its involvement in the electoral process was to promote good governance and ensure that our people start voting for credible leaders who would develop the country.
Fr Komakoma went on to further explain that the issue of elections has remained contentious in Zambian politics due to lack of confidence in the electoral process; and that the aim of their elections strategy is to ensure that there were effective and acceptable electoral roles and practices in place which were adhered to by all stakeholders to rekindle citizens’ confidence and participation in the electoral process.
There’s need for increased civil society participation in the monitoring of elections because, as Caritas Zambia has correctly observed, there are gaps in our current electoral roles which are often, if not always, unfairly exploited with the consequence of reducing the quality of elections and democratic governance in our country.
And this is compounded by the persistent lack of government commitment to implement, not only the recommended means to ensure equity in the electoral process, but also political will to implement its own developed policy guidelines. There is need for civil society organisations to put pressure on the government and the ruling party and make them realise that they have a serious responsibility, as facilitators of elections, to ensure that the concerns of all key players are adequately addressed.
Clearly, the Catholic Church is joining the election monitoring through Caritas Zambia, not to support or discredit any political party, but to bring the light of the gospel into our decisions as citizens and as voters and to allow God to “lead us beside still waters and restore our souls”.
The most important political right or privilege is the vote. Today the vote is a serious issue. Whether our country will have good or bad laws, an upright or inefficient administration depends on the voters. Therefore, we should ensure that whatever elections we hold are for the good of our people and our country, and not for the political survival of any individual or political party.
Voting constitutes an indispensable contribution towards the life of the nation. And for this reason, there’s need to ensure that the will of every citizen who participates in an election is respected and made effective. One’s vote must always go to the candidate one has voted for; and the candidate who tallies the highest number of votes must always be the winner of an election.
This is very important because elections and the votes cast in them are the principal mechanism for translating the consent of the citizens, of the voters into governmental authority. We, therefore, need to do everything possible to ensure the protection of the ballot box and that the tallying of the vote totals is conducted as openly as possible, so that citizens are confident that the results of elections are accurate and that the government does, indeed, rest upon their consent.
This is not possible to ascertain if electoral malpractices are permitted, if the results of voting are not accurate. To ensure this, good election monitoring is a must, especially in our circumstances where citizens do not have all the confidence in the electoral process and seriously doubt the outcome of elections.
We need to improve the quality and extent of election monitoring. Where the quality of election monitoring is high and when all polling stations are adequately covered by election monitors, the possibility of electoral disputes reduces significantly. We have continued to have problems with our elections because the quality of monitoring has been poor.
Electoral malpractices have been proved after the elections in our courts of law, resulting in the nullification of some results. If there was quality monitoring at all polling stations and in all circumstances, the number of electoral disputes going to our courts would be very low, if not nil.
There are many areas where election monitors have not been reaching. And in these areas electoral malpractices have taken place without hindrance, unabated. We have had many polling stations where political parties, including the ruling party, have failed to have representatives. Given the dishonesty that characterise our elections, this is dangerous and should not be allowed to continue.
We hope Caritas Zambia will endeavour to send quality monitors to areas where others don’t reach or have not been reaching; to far-flung areas. If this happens, disputes over the rural vote will reduce and those who deserve to win will justly and fairly win. We need elections where the candidates get the votes they deserve and no more or less.
We also hope that Caritas Zambia will put reasonable emphasis on the other aspects of the electoral process other than just those of the voting day. The process of voting is far longer or bigger than just the act of casting a ballot.
The process of elections start far much earlier than the voting day itself. It covers the issuance of national registration cards, the registration of voters, the issuance of voters’ cards, the printing and distribution of ballot papers, the number of polling stations and the distances between them, the time polling stations are opened and closed, the counting of the votes, the announcement of the results, the swearing in of the winning candidates, and so on and so forth.
All these aspects are a very important component of an electoral process and all need to be monitored closely if we are to have truly free and fair elections whose results are accepted by both the winners and the losers. This is a lot of work requiring large numbers of people and resources. We therefore hope there will be generous donors who will be willing to make fine use of their deep pockets to finance the election monitoring activities of Caritas Zambia.
This will definitely also call for very high numbers of volunteers to assist the work and efforts of Caritas Zambia. These initiatives, these efforts deserve the support of all citizens of goodwill and of donors who wish our country all that is best in its governance.
Labels: 2011 ELECTIONS, CATHOLIC CHURCH, ELECTIONS, POLLING
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Catholic Church to monitor 2011 polls
By Masuzyo Chakwe
Thu 04 Mar. 2010, 04:50 CAT
ZAMBIA Episcopal Conference (ZEC) secretary general Fr Joe Komakoma has said accountability and transparency should be at the core of whatever people do publicly, whether as politicians or ordinary citizens.
During the launch of the Caritas Zambia 2011 Election Strategy at Kapingila Guest House, Fr Komakoma said the Catholic Church would for the first time take part in the monitoring of elections.
He said since Caritas Zambia was part of the Catholic Church in Zambia, the Church remained independent and as an institution would never support any political party.
Fr Komakoma said the role of the Church in its involvement in the electoral process was to promote good governance and ensure that people started voting for credible leaders who would develop the country.
He said the issue of elections had remained contentious in Zambian politics due to lack of confidence in the electoral process.
Fr Komakoma explained that the aim of the elections strategy was to ensure that there were effective and acceptable electoral laws and practices in place, which were adhered to by all stakeholders to rekindle citizens’ confidence and participation in the electoral process.
“Caritas Zambia realises that there are gaps in the current electoral laws which are unfairly exploited and reduce the quality of elections and democratic governance.
There is also persistent lack of government commitment to implement, not only the recommended means to ensure equity in the electoral process but also political will to implement its own developed policy guidelines,” he said.
Fr Komakoma said it was hoped that through this exercise, the church would contribute to the attainment of a credible and conducive electoral process leading up to the 2011 elections.
He said Caritas Zambia was committed to address all aspects of the electoral process rather than focusing on the 2011 elections as an event.
He named the components of the projects as preparations and establishing structures for the elections programme, lobbying, advocacy and liaison and continuous civic and voter education.
Fr Komakoma named the other components as outreach and networking activities where Caritas Zambia would proactively engage with other like- minded civil society organisations in contributing to the attainment of a credible electoral process ahead of the 2011 elections.
He said Caritas Zambia intended to engage in public and stakeholder consultations and package an issues and demands document to be dubbed People’s Manifesto that would be subsequently used in advocacy and sensitization of the electorate on policy issues that political parties and government should consider and attend to if they were to be worthy of people’s votes.
Fr Komakoma said a growing number of literature on Zambian political parties pointed to the fact that many political parties in Zambia were weak and lacked key elements to become ideal democratic political parties.
“It is a reality that most political parties in Zambia have a generally weak internal democracy and there is an over emphasis on loyalty to the party, especially to the party leaders; some parties have tended to have self appointed leaders with very limited internal debate on key issues. Information is not easily shared, nor widely disseminated. Documents such as party constitutions or manifesto are not easily obtained or are a preserve of a few,” said Fr Komakoma.
And Caritas Zambia executive director Sam Mulafulafu said one of the areas of work was to promote intra-party democracy.
Mulafulafu said many political parties were fraught with many problems to deal with intra party democracy where there was hardly free flow of information whether in the ruling or opposition political parties.
Mulafulafu said party leaders in political parties were the centre of the political parties’ life and anyone who challenged them was marginalised or removed from the party.
Mulafulafu said there was a tendency to export bad practices from the parties into governance.
And Electoral Commission of Zambia public relations manager Chris Akufuna said the voter registration exercise would be conducted in all provinces and not selected ones.
Labels: 2011 ELECTIONS, CATHOLIC CHURCH, ELECTIONS, POLLING
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Apathy characterized presidential vote
October 30, 2008
Apathy has characterized Thursday’s presidential election to choose Zambia’s fourth Republican President. Polling stations in most parts of the country, which recorded a fairly good early turnout, were empty by midday, casting doubts that most of the 3.9 million registered voters would cast their ballots.
A survey by ZNBC in Lusaka and other parts of the country revealed that most polling stations have recorded low turnout. ZNBC staff covering the election in different parts of the country report that less than 50 percent of the registered voters turned up to cast their ballots.
The voting has also been characterized by some other shortcomings.
Some registered voters who lost their cards and had applied for replacements could not cast their ballots because electoral officials failed to trace the cards.
This problem was evident at polling stations in various parts of the country, prompting calls from a number of political stakeholders for urgent measures to address the matter.
The Independent Churches of Zambia and other Non governmental organizations appealed to the Electoral Commission of Zambia to ensure that persons who have not yet voted are given chance to cast their ballots.
Polling stations were expected to close at 18.00 hours, but time was extended in some areas, such as Kitwe, to allow voters whose cards were traced late to cast their ballots.
[ZNBC]
Labels: ELECTIONS, POLLING, ZNBC
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Another poll shows Sata ahead of Rupiah, Hichilema
Written by Chibaula Silwamba
Tuesday, October 28, 2008 10:07:34 AM
ANOTHER opinion poll has put opposition Patriotic Front (PF) presidential candidate Michael Sata in the lead. According to an opinion poll done by Pangolin Consulting, which is headed by political analyst Dr Neo Simutanyi, Sata would win 37 per cent of the total votes cast.
The opinion poll, carried out about two weeks ago, indicated that MMD presidential candidate and Republican Vice-President Rupiah Banda would get 32 per cent, UPND's Hakainde Hichilema would get 21 per cent while 10 per cent of the respondents to the survey were undecided on who to vote for.
This opinion poll was done a week before the poll done by Steadman Group, which indicated that Sata would win the election by 46 per cent.
Pangolin was commissioned to conduct an opinion poll by a named international organisation.
Sources connected to the organisation yesterday said the results of the opinion poll would not be made public because the organisation commissioned the opinion poll for its own consumption.
During the 2006 general elections, Pangolin Consulting conducted an opinion poll which revealed that late president Levy Mwanawasa would win with 43 per cent, Sata at 24 per cent while Hichilema was projected to get 22 per cent votes. However, president Mwanawasa won by 42.98 per cent, Sata polled 29.37 per cent and Hichilema polled 25.32 per cent.
On Friday, Steadman Group released results of its opinion poll carried out in all the nine provinces, which predicted that Sata would get 46 per cent, Vice-President Banda 32 per cent, Hichilema 20 per cent while Brig Gen Miyanda one per cent.
Labels: POLLING, SATA
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Post impressed with opinion poll response
By Inonge Noyoo
Monday December 17, 2007 [03:00]
The response to our newly introduced text message-based interactive opinion poll has so far been very impressive, Post managing editor Amos Malupenga has said. And Malupenga said today’s opinion poll results indicating that 82 per cent of the participants feel that the fight against corruption has not yielded the desired results was a confirmation of what most Zambians felt on the matter.
Reviewing the performance of the opinion poll which seeks to enhance interaction between the newspaper and its readers, Malupenga said the participation so far received from readers was impressive.
“Following the introduction of the SMS opinion polls in which our objective is to get readers to interact with us as a newspaper on national issues, we have so far received overwhelming responses from the readers across the country,” Malupenga said.
And reacting to a concerned reader’s fears that the opinion polls might not be representative of the national position because it was limited to The Post and those with access to mobile phones, Malupenga said going by the number of SMSs received so far, he felt very safe and satisfied to say every corner of the country was represented in the results.
The concerned citizen stated in yesterday’s Postbag that the opinion polls may not be representative of the national position per se, as the constituency was limited to those who have access to The Post and Celtel and MTN mobile phones. The reader further stated that therefore, the opinion would however give the position of the enlightened who are considered to make rational decisions on important national issues.
But Malupenga said regardless of how high or low the participation in the opinion poll would be, the votes received so far were coming from all parts of the country. He said it was an indisputable fact that The Post was circulated to all corners of the country.
“Our partners in this project, Celtel and MTN, are similarly spread across the country so it is easier for us to get participation from all corners of the country,” Malupenga said. “Of course, what is true is that participation in the urban areas will never be the same as in rural areas for obvious reasons. That not withstanding, we have gone a step further by sensitising our people through some community radio stations and further arrangements are underway to use more community radio stations including ZNBC, the national broadcaster and Muvi TV. We think these initiatives will be sufficient to adequately sensitise citizens all over the country so that they can adequately participate in the opinion polls.”
And Malupenga said today’s opinion poll results were representative of what many citizens felt or thought about the fight against corruption in Zambia.
“This is not difficult to understand because in our today’s edition, we are even carrying a statement from President Mwanawasa who is expressing disappointment that some members of his ruling party are not supportive of the fight against corruption and have instead embraced corrupt elements within the party and government,” Malupenga said. “In our humble view, the poll is achieving our objective because this is what we wanted to achieve – to get people’s views and opinions on national matters. Our duty in the next few days will be to find out why most people feel the way they do about the fight against corruption in Zambia.”
Malupenga has since called upon Post readers to express their opinions on national matters if they were to make a difference in the way national affairs are managed by those mandated to do so.
“For example, if 82 per cent of the participants in this opinion poll are saying the fight against corruption is not yielding results then all of us involved in this fight will have to sit back, review our efforts and establish why this is so. We hope this kind of interaction will help not only us, as journalists, but also all stakeholders in the management of national affairs to reflect on their work and see where improvements are needed,” said Malupenga.
Labels: AMOS MALUPENGA, CORRUPTION, POLLING, THE POST
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The Post introduces text message opinion poll
By Lwanga Mwilu
Friday November 30, 2007 [03:00]
Post Newspapers Limited has introduced a text message-based interactive opinion poll to get its readers’ views on various topical issues. The opinion poll, to commence on Monday, will feature a topical issue for a particular week with a response option of yes or no. In an interview yesterday, Post managing editor Amos Malupenga said from an editorial point of view, the polls were meant to enhance interaction between the newspaper and its readers.
“The idea is to enhance interaction between ourselves and our readers so that we know their feelings, views and opinions on issues we consider topical and of national interest for a particular week,” Malupenga said.
“We will suggest a topic every Monday that readers will respond to by either stating yes or no. They will be able to send in their responses from Monday to Sunday when the results will be compiled and published the following day in percentage form.”
Malupenga said the results would inform the newspaper and other stakeholders the general public’s feelings on issues of national importance.
“Through the opinion polls, we will be able to have an idea of what people are thinking about a particular issue and this should give a general idea of what the public perception is,” said Malupenga.
“The responses may also create leads for stories because a particular response may make us follow up and investigate reasons for the public taking such a position. Readers that may want to expand on why their response is yes or no will be free to write to the editor through the usual Post bag column.”
And Post marketing manager Chris Chilongo said the newspaper’s expectation is that the opinion poll initiative will create a platform for debate.
“We expect to generate a lot of debate on national issues affecting Zambians. We are taking advantage of the latest advancements in mobile phone technology so the polls will be SMS based,” he said.
“Our readers will be able to type either yes or no in text message form and send it to the short code 4450 and they will get a response advising that their response has been received. The prospective participants will be required to shoulder an SMS charge of K1,500 every time they send their response.”
Chilongo was optimistic that readers would respond positively.
“This will create more interactions and allow the readers’ views to be heard and I think that should excite our readers.
Subscribers on all three networks will be able to access the service eventually although we are starting with Celtel. We are using mobile phones so that readers can conveniently and effectively interact with us ” said Chilongo.
Labels: POLLING, THE POST
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